【Will Market Volatility Settle Down? — A Tense Tug-of-War Between Fear and Hope】
― Tariff Suspension and Focus on China Fuel “Dollar Selling” as Core Market Theme ―
■ From Tariff Shock to Relief — Volatility May Have Peaked
After weeks of market turmoil triggered by Trump’s aggressive reciprocal tariff strategy, a temporary suspension has been announced.
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Panic reached a climax with simultaneous sell-offs in gold and U.S. Treasuries, two major safe-haven assets
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Equities plummeted, prompting intervention by Treasury Secretary Bessent in a bid to restore market calm
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President Trump has signaled a pause in additional tariffs, triggering a sharp rebound in sentiment
📌 However, the underlying U.S.-China tension remains unresolved, and markets continue to swing between hope and caution.
■ Panic Buying Follows Panic Selling — Market Prone to One-Sided Reactions
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Stocks have stabilized, and gold has regained some footing
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But both panic-driven selling and hope-driven buying are showing signs of overshooting
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Traders should remain cautious of the pattern: “fear rebound = overoptimism”
🟨 Ongoing Risk:
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The Trump administration only paused tariffs, not scrapped them
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The potential for reactivation keeps volatility elevated
■ Market Focus Shifts to “Dollar Selling” as Tariffs Narrow to China
Markets are finding comfort in the narrowing of tariff focus solely onto China, reducing fears of a global trade war.
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Concerns over a cascade of global tariffs have eased
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As a result, safe-haven demand for JPY and EUR has stabilized
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However, bearish bias toward the U.S. dollar remains intact, with speculation of intentional dollar weakening by U.S. policy still circulating
📌 Current Core Market Theme:
→ Dollar weakness + mild return to “risk-on” sentiment
■ Today’s Key Events: Watch U.S. CPI and Central Bankers’ Tone
📊 Today’s Economic Schedule:
| Indicator | Forecast | Impact | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. CPI (Mar) | +2.5% YoY (Prev: +2.8%) | ★★★★☆ | A downside surprise could extend dollar selling pressure |
| Core CPI (Mar) | +3.0% YoY (Prev: +3.1%) | ★★★☆☆ | A small shift (even 0.1%) could move markets |
| U.S. Jobless Claims | — | ★★☆☆☆ | May be overlooked depending on CPI reaction |
| Other (Turkey, South Africa, Canada) | — | ★☆☆☆☆ | Limited market impact expected |
🗣️ Key Speeches to Watch:
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RBA Governor, BoE Deputy Governor
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Fed Members: Logan, Bowman, Schmid, Goolsbee, Harker
→ These are the first major comments post-tariff shock — focus will be on whether they adopt a “wait-and-see” tone.
■ Strategy Summary: Focus on Dollar Selling as Volatility Stabilizes
📌 Short- to Mid-Term Trade Setup:
| Pair / Asset | Stance | Target & Notes |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Stay Long | Targeting consolidation above 1.1100, aiming for 1.1150–1.1200 |
| USD/JPY | Sell on Rallies | Heavy resistance at 146.00–146.50; renewed focus on a break below 145.00 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Resume Buy on Dips | Aiming back toward $2,300+; yield stability supports recovery |
| AUD/JPY | Consider Long | Excluded from tariff focus; watch dip-buying around 90.00+ |
| DXY (Dollar Index) | Maintain Bearish View | Break below 103.50 opens the door to 102.80 |
✅ Summary
| Theme | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Trump Tariffs | Suspension brings relief, but risks of re-escalation remain |
| USD Strategy | Dollar weakness likely to persist, potentially policy-driven |
| Volatility | Signs of easing, but risk of resurgence depending on new catalysts |
| Strategic Focus | Stay focused on dollar-selling, but beware of overreactions and consider counter-trend caution when appropriate |
