Market Analysis and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 27, 2024
EUR/USD – Buy
Current Situation: EUR/USD remains range-bound near 1.0400.
Key Points:
- U.S. Labor Market Data:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 219,000 (forecast: 224,000).
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.910 million (previous: 1.864 million).
- U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB):
- December rate cut of 25 bp lowered rates to 4.50%.
- 2025 rate cut outlook revised down from three to two cuts, with the first expected after June 2025.
- European Central Bank (ECB):
- Multiple rate cuts expected in early 2025.
- Slow economic growth and low inflation in the Eurozone remain key concerns.
GBP/USD – Buy
Current Situation: GBP/USD remains stable near 1.2520.
Key Points:
- UK Economic Data:
- Q3 GDP (Annualized): +0.9% (previous forecast: +1.0%).
- Quarterly growth: 0.0% (previous forecast: +0.1%).
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders:
- November: -1.1% (previous: +0.8%), indicating slowing demand.
- Non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft): +0.7% (previous: -0.1%).
- Bank of England (BoE):
- December rate unchanged at 4.75%.
- Up to four rate cuts expected in 2025 due to low inflation.
AUD/USD – Sell
Current Situation: AUD/USD is declining near 0.6210, testing local lows.
Key Points:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA):
- Over 330,000 jobs added in 2024, unemployment at a steady 3.9%.
- Two rate cuts expected in 2025, with over a 70% chance for the first in February.
- U.S. Labor Market Data:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 219,000 (forecast: 224,000).
- Continuing Jobless Claims: Increased to 1.910 million.
- Impact of Christmas Holidays:
- Reduced trading volumes highlight technical-driven movements.
USD/JPY – Sell
Current Situation: USD/JPY is slightly declining near 157.70.
Key Points:
- Japanese Economic Data:
- Tokyo CPI (excluding fresh food): +2.4% (previous: +2.2%).
- Retail Sales (YoY): +2.8% (forecast: +1.7%).
- Industrial Production (YoY): -2.8% (previous: +1.4%).
- Bank of Japan (BoJ):
- December policy rate unchanged at 0.25%.
- Additional rate hikes under consideration for 2024.
- Impact of U.S. Policies:
- President-elect Trump’s tariff policies could influence further yen depreciation and dollar strength.
XAU/USD – Sell
Current Situation: XAU/USD is slightly rising around 2630.00.
Key Points:
- U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB):
- Prospects of additional rate cuts in 2025 support gold prices.
- First cut expected in mid-2025.
- Reduced Market Liquidity:
- Holiday-induced low volatility drives increased demand for gold.
- U.S. Labor Market Data:
- Better-than-expected initial jobless claims capped gold’s upward momentum.
Summary
Short-Term Focus:
- Following U.S. jobless claims data, attention shifts to Tokyo CPI and Japan’s industrial production data.
- Amid holiday-thinned liquidity, technical indicators are expected to drive market movements.
Year-End Market Dynamics:
Despite low liquidity, policy changes and major economic indicators may significantly influence trends.
