+89,300 USD Profit! USD/JPY Breaks 154 Yen, Trump Trade Resurgence
Last week, the market saw a surge in “Trump trades” following Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election. After a period of USD selling adjustments before the election, the election result triggered a substantial USD buying rally. Despite the rapid market movements, cautious entries at the right moments allowed me to secure profits. USD/JPY soared to 154.71 at one point, reflecting the dynamic market conditions.
Review of the Week (Nov 4, 2024)
- USD/JPY: After Trump’s victory announcement, USD/JPY rose to 154.71 but corrected to around 152.70.
- EUR/USD: USD strength caused a decline to 1.0683, followed by a short-covering rally to 1.0825.
- GBP/JPY: The Bank of England’s higher inflation forecast spurred buying, pushing GBP/JPY from the mid-196s to mid-199s.
- CAD/JPY: Influenced by Trump trade, CAD/JPY rose from 109 to the early 111s, maintaining a strong upward trend.
- AUD/JPY, ZAR/JPY: Both experienced selling pressure due to Trump’s policies but regained strength on buybacks.
Forecast for the Week of November 11, 2024
- USD/JPY:
- Direction: Buy favored
- Outlook: USD is supported by expectations of tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, with a focus on upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data mid-week.
- EUR/USD:
- Direction: Sell favored
- Outlook: Uncertainty in Germany’s political situation, with attention on Chancellor Scholz’s confidence vote results.
- GBP/JPY:
- Direction: Neutral
- Outlook: The market will be influenced by UK employment data and GDP growth figures, especially the potential impact of wage growth slowing down.
- CAD/JPY:
- Direction: Sell favored
- Outlook: Potential impact of Trump’s protectionist policies could negatively affect the Canadian economy.
- AUD/JPY:
- Direction: Neutral
- Outlook: The RBA’s hawkish stance may support the AUD, but higher U.S. interest rates could limit its upside potential.
- ZAR/JPY:
- Direction: Sell favored
- Outlook: Protectionist policies under the Trump administration could negatively affect South Africa’s economy, potentially leading to a weaker ZAR.
Key Economic Events to Watch for the Week of November 11, 2024
- Japan’s Q3 GDP Growth Rate (Nov 13)
- U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Nov 13)
- Eurozone Q3 GDP Revision (Nov 14)
- U.S. October Retail Sales (Nov 15)
- Japan’s Prime Minister Nomination Election (Nov 11)
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