Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) – Buy – Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) November 4, 2024
Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) – Buy
The EUR/USD pair is showing moderate gains and is recovering from last week’s bearish movement. It is testing new highs since October 15, and investors are waiting for new market drivers. On Monday, S&P Global is set to release the Eurozone’s October economic index, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI expected at 42.6 points and the overall Eurozone at 45.9 points. Additionally, remarks from Bundesbank and European Central Bank (ECB) officials are anticipated, which will focus on the direction of Eurozone monetary policy. Meanwhile, attention in the U.S. is centered on the presidential election on November 5, with Republican candidate Donald Trump gaining support from reports of a strengthened labor market.
British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD) – Strong Buy
The GBP/USD pair is showing a slight upward trend and is trading near its recent high of 1.2990 since October 31. Market activity is somewhat subdued, with investors refraining from opening new positions ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5. The current dollar exchange rate reflects expectations of a Trump victory, with anticipated tightening of trade policies and a slowdown in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. Last Friday’s employment statistics had only a short-term impact, with non-farm payrolls coming in at 12,000, significantly below expectations, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUD/USD) – Strong Buy
The AUD/USD pair is showing mixed movements around 0.6600. Trading started with an upward gap, but further bullish sentiment is being constrained. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could significantly alter the Fed’s monetary policy, particularly if Trump wins, as a reduction in geopolitical risks due to changes in foreign policy is expected. Australia’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose from 46.6 points to 47.3 points in October, providing support for the Australian dollar.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) – Strong Sell
The USD/JPY pair has slightly declined, positioned around 151.90, a low not seen since October 25. Investors are waiting for the results of the U.S. presidential election and are refraining from opening new positions. If Trump wins, there is a possibility of changes in U.S. trade policy and strengthening of the Fed’s monetary policy, which could support the dollar in the long term.
Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD) – Strong Sell
The XAU/USD pair has recovered from the low on October 28, attempting to break through 2740.00. With Trump’s victory anticipated, it is expected that the Fed will restrain interest rate cuts, particularly as trade policies towards China and the EU are expected to tighten. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not expected to make policy changes tomorrow, but both the Fed and the Bank of England are forecasted to lower rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
