XAU/USD: Strong Buy – Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 24, 2024
EUR/USD: Buy
EUR/USD is showing slight gains, recovering from its July 3 low and attempting to break 1.0790. The focus today is on the October business activity indices for the Eurozone and the US. Forecasts suggest a slight increase in Eurozone manufacturing PMI from 45.0 to 45.1, services PMI from 51.4 to 51.6, and composite PMI from 49.6 to 49.7. However, manufacturing and services PMIs in Germany and France are expected to decline, which could pressure the euro further. ECB President Lagarde has hinted at undecided future rate cut speeds, not ruling out a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting.
GBP/USD: Buy
GBP/USD shows weak upward movement, trading near its August 16 low. Yesterday’s drop followed remarks by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, suggesting a potential rate cut in November. Bailey emphasized the need to fully assess the impact of recent structural changes, indicating that a quicker rate cut could be considered if inflation pressure continues to decrease. Today’s UK business activity indices are expected to show a decrease, with manufacturing PMI dropping from 51.5 to 51.4 and services PMI from 52.4 to 52.2.
AUD/USD: Buy
AUD/USD is experiencing moderate gains, recovering from its August 16 low. It is currently attempting to break above 0.6650, supported by strong economic data from Australia. Commonwealth Bank’s services PMI rose from 50.5 to 50.6, and composite PMI increased from 49.6 to 49.8, although S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI declined from 46.7 to 46.6. In the US, today’s business activity indices are expected to show manufacturing PMI rising from 47.3 to 47.5, while services PMI is projected to fall from 55.2 to 55.0.
USD/JPY: Sell
USD/JPY shows a slight decline around 152.20 following yesterday’s surge. The US dollar positions are weakening ahead of the release of the US business activity indices. The forecasts suggest a drop in services PMI from 55.2 to 55.0 and a rise in manufacturing PMI from 47.3 to 47.5, but both remain below the 50.0 threshold. Meanwhile, Japan’s manufacturing PMI is expected to fall from 49.7 to 49.0, and services PMI from 53.1 to 49.3, which could impact the Bank of Japan’s stance due to expected declines in Tokyo CPI.
XAU/USD: Strong Buy
XAU/USD has recovered from the previous day’s sharp decline but failed to reach a new high near 2760.00. Technical factors are pressuring gold prices, with US existing home sales data falling short of market expectations, adding selling pressure. Today at 15:45 (GMT+2), the US October business activity indices will be released, with services PMI expected to decrease from 55.2 to 55.0 and manufacturing PMI to rise from 47.3 to 47.5.
