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[−74,812 USD] USD/JPY Struggles to Gain Despite Strong US Jobs Data: What Would It Take to Break Above the Upper 158s?

[−74,812 USD] USD/JPY Struggles to Gain Despite Strong US Jobs Data: What Would It Take to Break Above the Upper 158s?

Trading results | November 2–6, 2026
Weekly P&L | −74,812 USD

Weekly review

Profits from selling oil and buying USD/CAD were not enough to offset losses on long gold and GBP/USD positions. In particular, gold buying at both the start and end of the week weighed on the weekly result.

In FX, USD/JPY rose into the upper 158s before falling to 157.26 as losses in US technology stocks intensified. It recovered to the mid-158s by the end of the week, but remained below its midweek high.

The November 6 US employment report was firm, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 165,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Even so, the immediate dollar buying after the release was limited. Views on policy after the US midterm elections and concerns about technology stocks continued to compete, and USD/JPY remained slow to extend its gains despite the strong US data.

FX Strategy Update | November 9–13, 2026

For USD/JPY, watch for a pullback after a test of the upper 158s

The key question next week is whether US yields, moving in response to CPI, or expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes will have the greater influence on USD/JPY.

On November 10, the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from its October meeting and US CPI are both due. For the BOJ, watch for any change in the discussion of inflation and wages that might suggest the distance to another rate hike has narrowed. For US CPI, focus on the month-over-month headline and core readings, then assess through the reaction in US yields whether inflation is strengthening expectations for another rate hike in December.

Key levels for USD/JPY are the upper 158s on the upside and around 157.26 on the downside.

  • If the pair breaks above the upper 158s, watch whether US yields continue to rise and buyers return on pullbacks. If a sharper stock sell-off broadens yen buying, avoid chasing the highs.
  • If the pair falls below around 157.26, watch whether rebounds are capped at that level. If it quickly recovers, do not chase the decline; wait for the next opportunity.

This week showed that even when USD/JPY falls during a stock sell-off, the dollar does not necessarily weaken uniformly against other currencies. Next week, continue to assess the dollar’s broad strength separately from the yen’s movements.

The pound has absorbed the rate hike; next, assess the economy

GBP/USD came under pressure from dollar buying toward the end of the week, even after the Bank of England raised rates. The UK GDP release on November 12 will show how well the economy is holding up as monetary policy tightens.

If the pound rebounds after the GDP release, wait to see whether the recovery holds, especially if dollar buying persists after US CPI.

Set conditions before buying gold again or selling oil again

For gold, first assess how yields and the dollar move after US CPI, then watch whether the price holds its lows on a pullback following a rebound. If considering a long position, set an exit condition in advance, such as changing the view if those lows give way.

For oil, if prices fall on Middle East diplomacy headlines, watch whether selling continues afterward. If supply concerns return and prices quickly recover their losses, avoid re-entering short positions.

Key dates next week

  • November 10 (Tuesday): BOJ Summary of Opinions from its October meeting; US CPI
  • November 11 (Wednesday): OPEC monthly report; US bond market closed
  • November 12 (Thursday): Japan corporate goods price index; BOJ board member remarks; preliminary UK GDP
  • November 13 (Friday): US PPI

Trading approach for next week

Keep position sizes small at the start of the week and determine trade size based on the distance to the stop-loss and the acceptable loss amount. If several positions depend on the same factor, such as dollar strength, assess the combined loss to the account if they all move against you.

After the US CPI release, wait for the initial move to settle. Limit trades to situations where direction is clearer on a pullback or rebound and an exit level can be defined.

Afterword: Strengthen the foundations you cannot see

Inside the body is a community of gut bacteria that supports digestion, immunity, and other functions. Probiotics may help maintain its balance. However, no single food or bacterial strain is likely to transform health on its own; it is better to consider it as part of an overall diet and lifestyle.

Markets also have foundations that are not immediately visible but support the price action: the direction of interest rates, capital flows, market positioning, liquidity, and investor sentiment. Two moves may look similar on a chart, but their outcomes can differ when the conditions behind them are different.

Focusing only on price can lead to a mistaken reading of what is driving the market. Compare reactions to economic releases with movements in yields. Separate broad dollar moves from factors specific to the yen. Check gold and equity indices as well. Combining several signals can help build a more complete view of market conditions.

The market environment also changes gradually. A strategy that worked well before may not produce the same results when price behavior or market flows change. Review not only performance but also the conditions in which profits and losses occurred, and adjust your outlook or risk when needed.

In both health and trading, it is important to look beyond visible results and pay attention to the foundations that support them. Next week, let’s avoid reacting to price action alone and make measured decisions by checking the market conditions behind it.

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