Technical Analysis — October 5, 2026
Overview
Today’s main themes are a return to a bullish bias in USD/JPY, the divergence between the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and improving technical conditions in U.S. equities and the Nikkei 225.
USD/JPY now shows Strong Buy ratings from the 15-minute through the daily timeframe, reversing its previous short-term sell signals. USD/CHF also shows Strong Buy ratings across those timeframes. Meanwhile, AUD/USD shows Strong Buy ratings from the short-term through the hourly timeframe, indicating that U.S. dollar strength varies by currency pair.
AUD/NZD stands out with Strong Buy ratings across all timeframes. Short-term buy signals in AUD/USD, combined with Strong Sell ratings across all timeframes in NZD/USD, clearly highlight the Australian dollar’s relative strength.
Short-term buy signals are spreading across yen crosses, but their daily ratings remain bearish across the board. Short-term rebounds should therefore be assessed separately from the daily downtrend.
Among equity indices, the Nikkei 225 shows Strong Buy ratings across all timeframes. The S&P 500 is also aligned to the buy side across all timeframes, while the Nasdaq 100 maintains Strong Buy ratings from the 15-minute through the daily timeframe.
Key Changes Since the Previous Update
USD/JPY has shifted from Strong Sell ratings on the short-term and hourly timeframes to buy signals. Its daily rating has also improved from Neutral to Strong Buy.
USD/CHF’s hourly rating has changed from Strong Sell to Strong Buy. However, its 5-minute rating remains Sell, indicating that a short-term pullback is still underway.
AUD/NZD has shifted from Neutral across all timeframes to Strong Buy across the board. Meanwhile, NZD/USD’s hourly buy signal has disappeared, leaving Strong Sell ratings on every timeframe.
Yen crosses have shifted from predominantly bearish readings to short-term rebounds. AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY show Strong Buy ratings from the short-term through the hourly timeframe, although their daily Strong Sell ratings remain unchanged.
Natural gas has improved from Strong Sell to Strong Buy on the hourly timeframe, while its daily rating has improved from Strong Sell to Neutral.
BTC’s previous Strong Buy ratings on the 15-minute and hourly timeframes have disappeared. Short-term ratings are now bearish, while the hourly rating is Neutral.
The Nikkei 225 has risen from the previously quoted 68357.00 to 69946.86, with its short-term ratings now also aligned at Strong Buy. The S&P 500’s hourly and daily ratings have improved to Strong Buy.
Price changes are measured against the values quoted in the previous update.
Foreign Exchange
EUR/USD — 1.1213
The 5-minute rating is Strong Buy, the 15-minute is Neutral, the hourly is Sell, and the daily is Strong Sell.
The pair is rebounding in the short term, but the hourly and daily timeframes remain bearish. On the 15-minute timeframe, buy signals from moving averages conflict with sell signals from technical indicators, suggesting that the rebound has limited confirmation.
The primary bias remains to sell rallies. Watch for the 5-minute buy signal to weaken and the 15-minute rating to shift to Sell.
GBP/USD — 1.3225
The overall technical summary shows Strong Sell across all timeframes.
The previous hourly buy signal has disappeared, bringing the overall rating into line with the daily bearish bias. However, the hourly components remain divided: moving averages show Strong Sell, while technical indicators show Strong Buy.
The overall summary favors selling rallies, but the underlying signals are not fully aligned. Watch for the hourly indicators to turn bearish.
USD/JPY — 158.19
The 5-minute rating is Buy, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily ratings are Strong Buy.
All timeframes are aligned to the buy side, with moving averages and technical indicators also in agreement. The outlook has shifted from short-term selling pressure to a preference for buying dips.
If a short-term pullback develops, the key is whether the 15-minute and hourly buy signals remain intact.
USD/CHF — 0.8306
The 5-minute rating is Sell, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily ratings are Strong Buy.
Buy signals are aligned across the higher timeframes. However, the 5-minute indicators show Strong Sell, suggesting that a short-term pullback is still underway.
The pair remains a candidate for buying dips. Watch for the 5-minute selling pressure to subside and the rating to realign with the bullish higher timeframes.
AUD/USD — 0.6964
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, while the daily rating is Strong Sell.
Buy signals from the short-term through the hourly timeframe are clearer than in the previous update. Hourly moving averages and technical indicators are also aligned at Strong Buy.
Buying pressure dominates in the short term, but the daily downtrend remains intact. Any short-term long position should be treated as a rebound against the daily bearish bias.
NZD/USD — 0.5593
All timeframes show Strong Sell.
The previous hourly buy signal has disappeared, leaving bearish ratings aligned from the short-term through the daily timeframe. Moving averages and technical indicators also point to selling across the board.
Among the currency pairs in this update, NZD/USD is a clear candidate for selling rallies.
Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY — 177.38
The 5-minute and 15-minute ratings are Strong Buy, the hourly is Neutral, and the daily is Strong Sell.
The pair has shifted from Strong Sell across all timeframes to a short-term rebound. However, hourly moving averages remain Neutral, and daily weakness persists.
Watch whether short-term buying extends to the hourly timeframe or the pair resumes selling in line with the daily trend.
GBP/JPY — 209.20
The 5-minute rating is Neutral, the 15-minute and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, and the daily rating is Sell.
Moving averages and technical indicators agree on a buy bias on the 15-minute and hourly timeframes. The short-term rebound is clear, but the daily rating remains bearish.
The pair is a short-term buy-the-dip candidate, although a bullish reversal on the daily timeframe has yet to be confirmed.
CHF/JPY — 190.46
The 5-minute rating is Buy, the 15-minute and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, and the daily rating is Sell.
Conditions have improved from the short-term through the hourly timeframe since the previous update. However, daily moving averages and technical indicators both remain bearish.
The focus is on short-term buying opportunities, while keeping the conflict with the daily trend in mind.
AUD/JPY — 110.16
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, while the daily rating is Strong Sell.
Moving averages and technical indicators are unanimously Strong Buy from the short-term through the hourly timeframe. AUD/JPY shows particularly clear short-term strength among the yen crosses in this update.
With the daily rating still at Strong Sell, the short-term rebound should be distinguished from a reversal of the daily trend.
NZD/JPY — 88.47
The 5-minute rating is Buy, the 15-minute is Strong Buy, the hourly is Neutral, and the daily is Strong Sell.
Short-term conditions have improved, but the rebound is less convincing than in AUD/JPY, where buy signals extend through the hourly timeframe.
NZD/USD also shows Strong Sell across all timeframes, indicating that New Zealand dollar weakness persists.
CAD/JPY — 111.02
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, while the daily rating is Strong Sell.
Short-term and hourly conditions have improved sharply from the previous Strong Sell ratings across all timeframes. However, the daily downtrend continues.
Buying pressure dominates in the short term. For selling opportunities in line with the daily trend, wait for the hourly buy signals to weaken.
EUR/GBP — 0.8479
The 5-minute and 15-minute ratings are Strong Buy, while the hourly and daily ratings are Strong Sell.
The short-term rebound clearly conflicts with the bearish higher timeframes. On the hourly and daily timeframes, sterling continues to show relative strength against the euro.
The primary bias is to sell rallies in line with the higher timeframes, once short-term buying momentum fades.
AUD/NZD — 1.2452
All timeframes show Strong Buy. Moving averages and technical indicators are also unanimously Strong Buy.
This pair shows the clearest alignment of buy signals among the currency pairs in this update. The Australian dollar is demonstrating relative strength against the New Zealand dollar.
The primary bias favors buying dips.
EUR/CHF — 0.9313
The 5-minute and 15-minute ratings are Strong Buy, the hourly is Buy, and the daily is Strong Sell.
The pair has shifted from Strong Sell across all timeframes to a rebound extending from the short-term through the hourly timeframe. However, hourly moving averages remain Neutral, while the daily bearish rating persists.
Monitor whether the rebound continues. Selling rallies in line with the daily trend becomes a consideration once short-term buy signals weaken.
Commodities
Gold — 4163.67
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, while the daily rating is Strong Sell.
As in the previous update, buy signals from the short-term through the hourly timeframe conflict with the daily bearish rating. Hourly moving averages and technical indicators agree on a buy bias.
Short-term buy signals remain intact, but the daily downtrend has yet to be resolved.
Gold Futures — 4191.40
The 5-minute and 15-minute ratings are Strong Buy, the hourly is Buy, and the daily is Strong Sell.
The 15-minute rating has improved from Neutral to Strong Buy. Meanwhile, the hourly rating has weakened from Strong Buy to Buy.
The short-term and hourly timeframes remain bullish, but they continue to conflict with the daily Strong Sell rating.
Silver — 61.5655
The 5-minute rating is Strong Sell, the 15-minute is Neutral, the hourly is Strong Buy, and the daily is Strong Sell.
The hourly rebound signal has strengthened, but short-term selling pressure remains. The daily rating is also Strong Sell, so buy signals are less consistently aligned than in gold.
Silver Futures — 61.928
The 5-minute rating is Strong Sell, the 15-minute is Sell, the hourly is Strong Buy, and the daily is Strong Sell.
Ratings are unchanged from the previous update. The hourly buy signal sits between bearish short-term and daily ratings, making clearer directional alignment worth waiting for.
WTI Crude Oil — 90.38
The 5-minute rating is Strong Buy, the 15-minute is Neutral, and the hourly and daily ratings are Sell.
WTI has shifted from Strong Sell across all timeframes to a short-term rebound. However, hourly moving averages and technical indicators remain aligned to the sell side.
The primary bias is to sell rallies. Watch for the 5-minute buy signal to weaken and the 15-minute rating to return to Sell.
Natural Gas — 3.044
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, while the daily rating is Neutral.
The hourly and daily ratings previously showed Strong Sell, but buy signals now extend through the hourly timeframe. Conditions have improved from a short-term rebound to a bullish hourly bias as well.
Natural gas is a short-term buy-the-dip candidate. With the daily rating still Neutral, the next focus is whether bullish alignment extends to the daily timeframe.
BTC/USD — 85983.0
The 5-minute rating is Strong Sell, the 15-minute is Sell, the hourly is Neutral, and the daily is Strong Buy.
The previous buy signals from the short-term through the hourly timeframe have weakened, indicating a short-term correction. Daily strength remains intact, but hourly indicators are Neutral despite buy signals from moving averages.
For buying dips in line with the daily trend, wait for improvement on the 15-minute and hourly timeframes.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average — 51176.96
The 5-minute rating is Buy, the 15-minute is Strong Buy, the hourly is Neutral, and the daily is Strong Sell.
Short-term conditions have improved, but daily weakness remains. Hourly moving averages are also Neutral, indicating that the rebound has yet to extend to the higher timeframes.
The daily bias differs from that of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
S&P 500 — 7722.72
The 5-minute rating is Buy, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily ratings are Strong Buy.
All timeframes are aligned to the buy side. Moving averages and technical indicators also agree, with higher-timeframe strength clearer than in the previous update.
The primary bias favors buying dips.
Nasdaq 100 — 30807.93
The 5-minute rating is Neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily ratings are Strong Buy.
Strong Buy ratings remain intact on the higher timeframes, while the 15-minute rating has also improved to Strong Buy. The 5-minute indicators are Neutral, but there is no alignment of sell signals.
The index is a candidate for buying dips after a short-term pullback.
German DAX — 25278.16
The 5-minute rating is Buy, the 15-minute and hourly ratings are Strong Buy, and the daily rating is Strong Sell.
The hourly rating has improved from Neutral to Strong Buy. The rebound is now clearer from the short-term through the hourly timeframe, but the daily downtrend continues.
Short-term buy signals remain in conflict with the daily bearish rating.
UK 100 — 10516.75
The 5-minute and 15-minute ratings are Strong Buy, the hourly is Neutral, and the daily is Strong Sell.
Short-term conditions have improved, while the hourly rating has shifted from Strong Sell to Neutral. However, hourly moving averages remain Neutral, and daily weakness persists.
Watch whether the rebound extends to a Buy rating on the hourly timeframe.
French CAC 40 — 7844.71
The 5-minute rating is Strong Sell, the 15-minute is Neutral, and the hourly and daily ratings are Strong Sell.
While the DAX and UK 100 are rebounding in the short term, the CAC 40 retains clear sell signals on the higher timeframes. Its 15-minute indicators show Strong Buy, but moving averages remain bearish.
Among the major European indices, its weakness makes it a notable candidate for selling rallies.
Nikkei 225 — 69946.86
All timeframes show Strong Buy.
The previous short-term correction signals have cleared, bringing short-term ratings into line with the bullish hourly and daily timeframes. Moving averages and technical indicators also agree on a buy bias across the board.
The Nikkei 225 shows the clearest alignment of buy signals among the equity indices in this update. After a pullback, watch whether the 15-minute and hourly Strong Buy ratings remain intact.
Strength Rankings
Buy Signals Aligned Across All Timeframes, Including the Daily
AUD/NZD
Nikkei 225
S&P 500
USD/JPY
Strong Buy from the 15-Minute Through the Daily Timeframe
Nasdaq 100
USD/CHF
Clear Buy Signals from the Short-Term Through the Hourly Timeframe
AUD/USD
AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY
Natural gas
Gold
German DAX
These instruments have bearish or Neutral daily ratings and should be assessed separately from those with buy signals aligned through the daily timeframe.
Weakness Rankings
Overall Technical Summaries Show Strong Sell Across All Timeframes
NZD/USD
GBP/USD
GBP/USD’s hourly indicators show Strong Buy, so a conflict remains among its underlying signals.
Clear Sell Signals on the Hourly and Daily Timeframes
French CAC 40
EUR/GBP
EUR/USD
WTI crude oil
Rebounding Instruments with Persistent Daily Weakness
Dow Jones Industrial Average
German DAX
UK 100
Gold and silver
Yen crosses broadly
Trading Strategy
Priority Candidates for Buying Dips
AUD/NZD, the Nikkei 225, the S&P 500, and USD/JPY show buy signals across all timeframes.
The Nasdaq 100 and USD/CHF also show aligned Strong Buy ratings from the 15-minute timeframe upward. Watch for short-term pullbacks to end and prices to resume moving in the direction of the higher timeframes.
Short-Term Buying Candidates
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, natural gas, gold, and the DAX show clear buy signals from the short-term through the hourly timeframe.
However, their daily ratings are bearish or Neutral. Continued short-term buying momentum should be assessed separately from a bullish reversal on the daily timeframe.
Candidates for Selling Rallies
NZD/USD shows aligned sell signals across all timeframes.
GBP/USD’s overall summary also shows Strong Sell across all timeframes, although the conflict with its hourly indicators requires attention.
For the CAC 40, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, and WTI crude oil, the primary bias follows the bearish higher timeframes. Watch for short-term rebounds to weaken and sell signals to realign.
Instruments Awaiting Improvement
BTC has a daily Strong Buy rating, but its short-term ratings are bearish. Watch for the 15-minute and hourly ratings to return to Buy.
Silver’s hourly Strong Buy rating conflicts with bearish short-term and daily ratings. EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY also have Neutral hourly ratings, making the extent of their short-term buying momentum a key point to monitor.
Key Points to Watch
AUD/NZD’s strength and NZD/USD’s weakness are particularly clear in this update. The market calls for attention to relative currency strength, rather than treating the Australian and New Zealand dollars as moving in the same direction.
Among equity indices, the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 show clear buy signals, while the Dow and European indices remain weak on the daily timeframe. Directional views should be assessed by region and individual index.
Buying USD/JPY and multiple yen crosses simultaneously creates overlapping exposure to yen weakness. Since yen crosses retain bearish daily ratings, position allocation should limit the concentration of losses if their short-term rebounds break down.
