Technical Analysis
1 October 2026
Market Overview
Today’s key themes are broadening dollar strength, weakness in gold, silver and European equities, and strength in the Nikkei 225.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are strong sells across all timeframes. USD/CHF is a strong buy across all timeframes, while USD/JPY is showing strong buy signals from the 15-minute chart through to the daily chart. Dollar strength is becoming more widespread against the major currencies.
Cross-yen pairs are showing mixed signals. EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY are strong sells across all timeframes, while CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY retain buy signals on the hourly chart. It is important to assess the strength of the other currency in each pair rather than judging the yen’s direction in isolation.
In commodities, gold, silver and natural gas are strong sells across all timeframes. WTI crude oil has improved to strong buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart.
Among equity indices, the Nikkei 225 is a strong buy across all timeframes. The Dow Jones and CAC 40 are strong sells across all timeframes, highlighting a clear divergence between regions.
Key Changes Since the Previous Update
EUR/USD and GBP/USD have lost their previous buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart and have shifted to strong sells across all timeframes. The short-term charts are now aligned with the daily sell bias.
USD/JPY has improved from neutral to strong buy on the hourly and daily charts. USD/CHF has also strengthened, with strong buy signals replacing neutral readings from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart.
AUD/NZD has shifted from strong sells to strong buys from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars remain weak against the US dollar, but their relative performance has recently turned in favour of the Australian dollar.
Gold has lost its hourly rebound signal. Both spot gold and gold futures are now strong sells across all timeframes. Natural gas has also weakened, with the daily chart shifting from neutral to a strong sell.
WTI crude oil has improved from neutral to a strong buy on the hourly chart, while the daily chart has moved from a sell to neutral.
The Nikkei 225 has risen from the previous quoted level of 66,896.00 to 69,046.00, with strong buy signals now aligned across all timeframes. This price comparison is against the previous quoted level.
FX Market
EUR/USD 1.1270
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals. The moving averages and indicators are also unanimously strong sells.
The pair has shifted from a short-term rebound in the previous update to broad selling in line with the daily trend. The preferred strategy is selling on rallies. Even if a rebound develops, it will be difficult to call it a trend reversal while the 15-minute and hourly charts continue to signal strong selling.
GBP/USD 1.3196
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals, with the moving averages and indicators fully aligned.
The strong buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart in the previous update have reversed, bringing the pair into alignment with the daily sell trend. As with EUR/USD, it is preferable to wait for a rebound and then look for selling to resume.
USD/JPY 158.37
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly and daily charts are strong buys.
The timeframes are more closely aligned than in the previous update. The 5-minute indicators are neutral, but both the moving averages and indicators point higher from the 15-minute chart onwards.
The pair is a potential buying-on-dips candidate. If the 5-minute chart also turns to a buy after a short-term correction, it would provide clearer confirmation of a move in line with the higher timeframes.
USD/CHF 0.8368
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals. The moving averages and indicators are also strong buys across the board.
This is one of the clearest examples of aligned buying in today’s FX market.
The preferred strategy is buying on dips.
AUD/USD 0.6933
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals, with the moving averages and indicators fully aligned.
The pair remains weak from the short term through to the daily chart, as in the previous update.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
NZD/USD 0.5601
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The 5-minute and hourly charts were neutral in the previous update but have now shifted to strong sells. Short-term direction is aligned with the daily sell bias, making the downside signal clearer.
Cross-Yen Pairs and Relative Currency Strength
EUR/JPY 178.49
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The previous buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart have disappeared, bringing the pair into alignment with the daily downtrend. The sell signals are consistent across timeframes, making this a clear selling-on-rallies candidate.
GBP/JPY 208.99
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is neutral.
The short-term and hourly charts point lower, but on the daily chart, sell signals from the moving averages conflict with buy signals from the indicators. It is a potential short-term selling-on-rallies candidate, but its setup differs from EUR/JPY, where the daily chart is also aligned to the downside.
CHF/JPY 189.24
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
The hourly buy signal sits between sell signals on the shorter-term and daily charts. Before considering a short position, monitor whether the hourly buy signal begins to weaken.
AUD/JPY 109.77
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
On the hourly chart, sell signals from the moving averages conflict with strong buy signals from the indicators. The short-term and daily charts point lower, but caution is warranted until the hourly chart’s neutral reading is resolved.
NZD/JPY 88.70
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The short-term rebound signals from the previous update have disappeared, bringing the pair into alignment with its daily downtrend. Alongside EUR/JPY, this is one of the clearest bearish cross-yen pairs.
CAD/JPY 111.11
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.
On the hourly chart, both the moving averages and indicators signal a buy. Rather than selling solely on the basis of the daily downtrend, wait to see whether the hourly advance continues or the short-term charts align with the sell signals.
EUR/GBP 0.8541
The 5-minute, hourly and daily charts are strong sells, while the 15-minute chart is neutral.
The signals point to sterling’s relative strength against the euro. This does not mean that sterling is strong across the board, as GBP/USD is also a strong sell.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies. If the 15-minute chart turns to a sell, the timeframes will be more clearly aligned.
AUD/NZD 1.2377
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strong buys, while the daily chart is neutral.
The Australian dollar is outperforming the New Zealand dollar from the short term through to the hourly chart. This relative strength can coexist with weakness in AUD/USD.
AUD/NZD is a potential short-term buying-on-dips candidate, although the daily moving averages signal a buy while the indicators signal a sell.
EUR/CHF 0.9432
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strong sells, while the daily chart is a buy.
The pair has deteriorated sharply from strong buy signals across all timeframes in the previous update. Selling is dominant in the short term, but the daily buy signal remains, creating a conflict between short-term downside and the daily uptrend.
Commodities
Gold 4,153.51
Gold Futures 4,182.47
Both spot gold and gold futures are showing strong sell signals across all timeframes. The moving averages and indicators are also unanimously strong sells.
The hourly rebound signals from the previous update have disappeared. The current readings favour treating gold as a selling-on-rallies candidate rather than assuming a short-term rebound will continue.
Silver 60.4550
Silver Futures 60.740
Both spot silver and silver futures are showing strong sell signals across all timeframes.
As with gold, the sell signals are clearly aligned. If a short-term rebound develops, monitor whether the 15-minute and hourly charts continue to improve.
WTI Crude Oil 92.36
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strong buys, while the daily chart is neutral.
The hourly chart has improved since the previous update, bringing the short-term and hourly charts into alignment on the buy side. On the daily chart, however, buy signals from the moving averages conflict with strong sell signals from the indicators.
WTI is a potential short-term buying-on-dips candidate. Whether the daily chart also improves to a buy will show if the advance is broadening.
Natural Gas 2.952
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The daily chart has shifted from neutral in the previous update to a strong sell. Signals now point lower from the short term through to the daily chart, making this a clear selling-on-rallies candidate.
BTC/USD 83,632.0
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strong sells, while the daily chart is a buy.
The previous short-term buy signals have disappeared, and the hourly chart has deteriorated to a strong sell. The daily buy signal remains, but it is preferable to wait for the short-term and hourly charts to improve before considering a buying-on-dips trade.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones 50,906.05
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals.
The buy signals on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts in the previous update have reversed, bringing the index into alignment with the sell signals on the hourly and daily charts.
This is a clear selling-on-rallies candidate.
S&P 500 7,651.54
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strong sells, while the daily chart is neutral.
The daily buy signal from the previous update has weakened to neutral. Selling is dominant in the short term, but the picture differs from the Dow Jones, where strong sell signals extend to the daily chart.
Nasdaq 100 30,408.50
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strong sells, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.
The daily buy signal is the strongest among the major US equity indices. However, the short-term charts are bearish and the hourly chart has yet to establish a clear direction.
The index is a potential buying-on-dips candidate in line with the daily trend, but it is preferable to wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve.
DAX 25,004.82
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute chart is a sell, and the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
Even if short-term selling momentum eases, the higher-timeframe weakness remains.
The preferred strategy is selling on rallies.
UK 100 10,429.08
The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, and the hourly and daily charts are strong sells.
All timeframes point lower. The daily chart has also weakened since the previous update, making the bearish signal clearer among European equities.
CAC 40 7,855.36
All timeframes are showing strong sell signals. The moving averages and indicators are also unanimously strong sells.
This is one of the clearest sell setups among today’s equity indices.
Nikkei 225 69,046.00
All timeframes are showing strong buy signals. The moving averages and indicators are also aligned on the buy side.
The Nikkei has the clearest bullish signals among the equity indices. Buying on dips is favoured, although the index has risen sharply since the previous quoted level. Watch whether the buy signals remain in place after a correction.
Strength Rankings
Strong Buys Across All Timeframes
• USD/CHF
• Nikkei 225
Strong Buys from the Short-Term Charts through to the Hourly Chart
• USD/JPY, from the 15-minute chart through to daily
• WTI crude oil
• AUD/NZD
Instruments Retaining Daily Buy Signals
• Nasdaq 100
• BTC/USD
• EUR/CHF
Weakness Rankings
Strong Sells Across All Timeframes
• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• EUR/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• Gold and gold futures
• Silver and silver futures
• Natural gas
• Dow Jones
• CAC 40
Strong Selling Pressure on Higher Timeframes
• DAX
• UK 100
• EUR/GBP
Trading Strategy
Prioritise Buying on Dips
USD/CHF and the Nikkei 225 are strong buys across all timeframes. USD/JPY is also a potential buying-on-dips candidate, with strong buy signals aligned from the 15-minute chart onwards.
WTI crude oil and AUD/NZD have clear buy signals from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart, but their daily charts are neutral. Distinguish these short-term buy setups from instruments where buy signals extend to the daily chart.
Prioritise Selling on Rallies
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, gold, silver, natural gas, the Dow Jones and the CAC 40 are strong sells across all timeframes.
The DAX, UK 100 and EUR/GBP also have strong selling pressure on higher timeframes. For these instruments, watch whether the short-term charts turn lower again after a rebound.
Wait for the Timeframes to Align
BTC/USD and EUR/CHF are sells from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart, while their daily charts remain bullish.
The Nasdaq 100 has a strong daily buy signal, but its short-term charts are strong sells. For a trade in line with the daily trend, wait for short-term selling to ease and the hourly chart to improve.
In CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY, hourly buy signals conflict with daily sell signals. The daily chart for GBP/JPY is neutral, so monitor how far the short-term selling extends.
Key Points
Many instruments that had been rebounding in the short term in the previous update have shifted back towards selling. The changes are particularly clear in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, gold and the Dow Jones.
By contrast, USD/CHF and the Nikkei 225 retain aligned buy signals, while the higher-timeframe buy signals in USD/JPY have strengthened. The market is offering a clearer distinction between buy and sell candidates.
Holding short positions in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD at the same time would concentrate exposure in the dollar-buying theme. Similar directional signals also appear across gold, silver and European equities. Position allocation should therefore account for exposure to shared themes, not just the number of instruments held.
