Today’s Technical Analysis
4 September 2026
■ Summary
Today’s main themes are the continuation of the yen-strengthening trend, New Zealand dollar weakness, and strength in BTC and U.S. equities.
USD/JPY is trading at 156.29 and remains Strong Sell across all timeframes, from the 5-minute chart through the daily chart. EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY are also Strong Sell across all timeframes, indicating that the technical yen-buying trend remains exceptionally strong.
Dollar pairs are showing divergent signals. GBP/USD and AUD/USD are buy-biased, while NZD/USD is on Sell from the short term through the daily chart. AUD/NZD is Strong Buy across all timeframes, clearly highlighting the divergence between AUD and NZD.
In commodities, gold has shifted to Strong Sell from the short term through the hourly chart. Silver is selling in the short term but buying on the hourly chart, creating conflicting signals. WTI crude oil maintains Strong Buy on the daily chart while undergoing a short-term correction.
Equity markets are rebounding, led by the NY Dow. The DAX is also Strong Buy from the short term through the hourly chart. In contrast, the CAC 40 remains Strong Sell on the hourly and daily charts.
With the U.S. employment report due later today, even technically clear trends could reverse sharply following the release.
■ FX Market
EUR/USD 1.1622
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Neutral, the hourly chart is Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but the hourly correction continues. The short-term charts also lack direction, making this an unsuitable point to rush into daily-trend longs.
If the hourly chart improves to Neutral or Buy, EUR/USD could become a buy-on-dips candidate.
GBP/USD 1.3537
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Strong Buy, while the daily chart is Neutral.
Pound buying and dollar selling are clear from the short term through the hourly chart. However, the daily chart remains conflicted, with moving averages on Buy and indicators on Strong Sell, so a medium- to long-term uptrend has not yet been confirmed.
In the short term, buying on dips is favored.
USD/JPY 156.29
All timeframes are Strong Sell.
For a second consecutive day, moving averages and indicators are fully aligned to the downside. USD/JPY is one of the clearest downtrends in the current FX market.
The basic bias is to sell on rallies. However, after the large decline from above 160, chasing lows should be avoided. A potential entry would be after a rebound, when short-term charts turn back to Sell.
USD/CHF 0.8092
The 5-minute chart is Neutral, the 15-minute chart is Buy, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
The upward direction is broadening from the short term through the daily chart. While USD/JPY is being driven lower more by yen strength than dollar weakness, the dollar is dominant in USD/CHF.
USD/CHF is a buy-on-dips candidate.
AUD/USD 0.7202
The 5-minute chart is Buy, the 15-minute chart is Strong Buy, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Australian dollar strength remains intact. Only the hourly chart is Neutral, while the short-term and daily directions are upward.
If the hourly chart improves to Buy, AUD/USD will become a clearer buy-on-dips market.
NZD/USD 0.5879
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Strong Sell, and the daily chart is also Sell.
NZD weakness is clear. With selling aligned from the short term through the daily chart, the basic bias is to sell on rallies.
Given the large divergence from AUD/USD, it is important not to assess all dollar pairs as a single group.
■ JPY Crosses
EUR/JPY 181.65
All timeframes are Strong Sell.
EUR/USD is Strong Buy on the daily chart, but EUR/JPY remains in a downtrend because yen strength is even greater.
The basic bias is to sell on rallies.
GBP/JPY 211.56
The 5-minute and hourly charts are Neutral, the 15-minute chart is Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Sell.
GBP/USD is strong in the short term, while yen strength dominates on the daily chart. The short-term decline has paused for now, but GBP/JPY remains a sell-on-rallies candidate in line with the daily trend.
CHF/JPY 193.15
All timeframes are Strong Sell.
Yen strength versus the Swiss franc continues. Since USD/CHF is on Buy, Swiss franc weakness and yen strength are overlapping.
The basic bias is to sell on rallies.
AUD/JPY 112.55
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and daily charts are Strong Sell, while the hourly chart is Neutral.
AUD/USD is on Buy, but yen strength is greater. With the hourly chart temporarily losing direction, it is preferable to wait for a rebound to form and then confirm a renewed decline.
NZD/JPY 91.88
All timeframes are Strong Sell.
NZD weakness and yen strength are combining to create a very clear downtrend. NZD/JPY is a high-priority sell-on-rallies candidate among the yen crosses.
CAD/JPY 113.18
All timeframes are Strong Sell.
Despite elevated oil prices, CAD/JPY remains in a downtrend because of yen strength.
The basic bias is to sell on rallies.
■ Other Currency Pairs
EUR/GBP 0.8586
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Strong Sell, while the daily chart is Strong Buy.
EUR/GBP has shifted from broad euro buying yesterday to short-term pound buying. However, the euro remains dominant on the daily chart.
The timeframes are in conflict: sell on rallies in the short term and buy on dips on the daily chart.
AUD/NZD 1.2250
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
Australian dollar buying and New Zealand dollar selling are fully aligned. AUD/NZD is one of the clearest relative-currency trends in the current FX market.
The basic bias favors buying on dips, although it is preferable to wait for a short-term correction rather than chase highs.
EUR/CHF 0.9405
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
Euro buying and Swiss franc selling are fully aligned from the short term through the daily chart. The basic bias favors buying on dips.
■ Gold and Silver
Spot Gold $4,466.22
Gold Futures $4,511.55
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Strong Sell, while the daily chart is Neutral.
Gold has shifted sharply from yesterday’s Strong Buy signals from the short term through the hourly chart to selling. The daily direction also remains unclear, with moving averages on Buy and indicators on Sell.
Short-term sell-on-rallies are favored. Since the daily chart is Neutral, this should not automatically be treated as a long-term downtrend; a shorter holding period is more appropriate.
Spot Silver $66.8070
Silver Futures $67.361
For spot silver, the 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute chart is Sell, the hourly chart is Strong Buy, and the daily chart is Neutral.
For silver futures, the 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute chart is Sell, and the hourly and daily charts are Buy.
Short-term profit-taking is dominant, but the direction remains upward on the hourly chart and above. Silver is a medium-term buy-on-dips candidate, although it is preferable not to rush into longs until short-term selling pressure subsides.
■ Crude Oil and Natural Gas
WTI Crude Oil $90.72
The 5-minute chart is Buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are Strong Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Short-term and hourly correction is developing against the daily uptrend. The 5-minute chart is showing a bounce, but with the hourly chart still Strong Sell, a renewed advance has not yet been confirmed.
The timeframes are in conflict: sell on rallies in the short term and buy on dips on the daily chart. Long positions should wait for the hourly chart to reverse.
Natural Gas 2.928
The 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
Natural gas is weak in the short term, but the daily uptrend remains intact. With the hourly direction still unclear, waiting is appropriate for now.
■ BTC/USD
BTC/USD $81,462
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
Moving averages and indicators are fully aligned to the upside from the 5-minute chart through the daily chart. BTC/USD is one of the clearest uptrends among the instruments covered today.
The basic bias favors buying on dips. However, as the market has risen sharply in a short period, it is preferable to prioritize a pullback and renewed upside confirmation rather than chase highs.
■ Equity Markets
NY Dow 53,686.11
All timeframes are Strong Buy.
The Dow has reversed sharply from yesterday’s selling trend, with buy signals aligned from the short term through the daily chart. It is the clearest equity-index uptrend in the current market.
The basic bias favors buying on dips.
S&P 500 7,747.71
The 5-minute chart is Sell, the 15-minute chart is Buy, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
A very short-term correction is underway, but the medium-term and daily uptrends are clear. If the 5-minute sell signal fades, the S&P 500 could become a buy-on-dips candidate.
Nasdaq 100 29,482.32
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Neutral, while the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
The Nasdaq 100 maintains its uptrend from the medium term through the daily chart. It could become a buy-on-dips candidate once short-term direction returns.
DAX 26,080.37
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are Strong Buy, while the daily chart is Neutral.
A strong rebound is underway from the short term through the hourly chart. However, the daily chart is conflicted, with moving averages on Buy and indicators on Sell.
Buying on dips is favored in the short term, but longer-term positions require confirmation of daily-chart improvement.
UK 100 10,828.90
The 5-minute chart is Sell, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
The UK 100 is in a short-term correction, while the medium-term and daily uptrends remain intact. If the 5-minute and 15-minute charts improve to Buy, it could become a buy-on-dips candidate.
CAC 40 8,276.06
The 5-minute chart is Strong Buy, the 15-minute chart is Sell, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Sell.
The CAC 40 is rebounding in the very short term, but its medium-term and daily downtrends remain intact. The basic bias is to sell on rallies after the rebound loses momentum.
Nikkei Average 65,034
The 5-minute chart is Neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are Buy, and the daily chart is Strong Sell.
The Nikkei has rebounded in the short term from yesterday’s broad Strong Sell conditions. However, the daily downtrend continues.
The timeframes are in conflict: Buy in the short term and sell on rallies on the daily chart. Holding periods must be clearly separated.
■ Strength Ranking
Clearly Aligned Buy Direction
・BTC/USD
・AUD/NZD
・EUR/CHF
・NY Dow
・USD/CHF
・S&P 500
・Nasdaq 100
・DAX in the short term
Clearly Aligned Sell Direction
・USD/JPY
・EUR/JPY
・CHF/JPY
・NZD/JPY
・CAD/JPY
・NZD/USD
・CAC 40
・Gold in the short term
■ Trading Strategy
Buy-on-Dips Candidates
・BTC/USD
・AUD/NZD
・EUR/CHF
・USD/CHF
・AUD/USD
・NY Dow
・S&P 500
・Nasdaq 100
・DAX
・UK 100
・Silver on the hourly chart
Sell-on-Rallies Candidates
・USD/JPY
・EUR/JPY
・GBP/JPY on the daily chart
・CHF/JPY
・AUD/JPY
・NZD/JPY
・CAD/JPY
・NZD/USD
・EUR/GBP in the short term
・Gold
・CAC 40
・Nikkei Average on the daily chart
Prioritize Direction Confirmation
・EUR/USD
・WTI crude oil
・Natural gas
■ Points of Caution
With the U.S. employment report due later today, technical signals established before the release may reverse simultaneously. USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold, and U.S. equities in particular are vulnerable to sharp moves and wider spreads immediately after the release.
Sell signals are aligned across major yen crosses, but selling several pairs simultaneously results in overlapping long-yen exposure. It is safer to focus on the clearest setup among USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY.
WTI crude oil remains Strong Buy on the daily chart, but Strong Sell on the hourly chart. The fact that it is trading in the $90 range alone does not confirm a buying opportunity; it is important to wait for the hourly chart to turn back to Buy.
Overall, today’s key technical themes are the continuing yen-strengthening trend, NZD weakness, BTC and U.S. equity strength, and short-term weakness in gold.
