【Technical Analysis】21 August 2026
■ Summary
The main themes are Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar strength, higher precious metals, and stronger yen crosses.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY are rated Strong Buy across all timeframes, from short-term charts through the daily chart. USD/JPY is rated Strong Sell on the hourly and daily charts. This is not simply a broad dollar-selling and yen-selling market; rather, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are particularly strong amid dollar weakness.
U.S. equities remain under strong selling pressure from short-term through hourly charts. European equities are relatively firm, led by the DAX and FTSE 100, while the CAC 40 is weak on both hourly and daily charts. The Nikkei average is strong in the short term but remains bearish on the daily chart, indicating that the current rebound is still within a broader corrective structure.
In commodities, gold and silver are rated Strong Buy across all timeframes. WTI crude retains a Strong Buy signal on the daily chart but is in a short-term correction.
■ Currency Markets
EUR/USD 1.1697
The 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
The medium-term and daily-chart euro-strength and dollar-weakness trend remains clear. However, short-term profit-taking has emerged, requiring caution against chasing the market higher.
The core strategy is to buy on dips in line with the hourly and daily charts. It is preferable to wait for the 5-minute and 15-minute charts to improve into buy territory before entering.
GBP/USD 1.3653
The 5-minute chart is Sell, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
As with EUR/USD, pound strength and dollar weakness continue in the medium term. However, the pair is undergoing a short-term correction.
EUR/GBP is bearish from the short term through the hourly chart, indicating that the pound is currently stronger than the euro on a relative basis. GBP/USD is a buy-on-dips candidate after the short-term correction.
USD/JPY 158.66
The 5-minute chart is Neutral, the 15-minute chart is Sell, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Sell.
USD/JPY is aligned to the downside from the medium term through the daily chart, favoring selling on rebounds.
A short-term correction may emerge after the decline, so it is preferable to wait for a rebound and confirm resistance rather than chase the pair lower.
USD/CHF 0.7995
The 5-minute chart is Strong Buy, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, the hourly chart is Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Sell.
The daily chart clearly favors dollar weakness and Swiss franc strength, but the pair is currently in a short-term rebound.
The key point is whether short-term dollar buying fades and the pair returns to the hourly-chart sell direction.
It remains a medium-term sell-on-rebounds candidate, but caution is needed while the short-term rebound continues.
AUD/USD 0.7164
All timeframes are rated Strong Buy.
It is one of the clearest uptrends among the major dollar pairs. Australian dollar buying and dollar selling are aligned from short-term charts through the daily chart.
The basic strategy is to buy on dips. With strong buying still visible on short-term charts, it is preferable to wait for a pullback rather than chase a sharp advance.
NZD/USD 0.5982
All timeframes are rated Strong Buy.
The New Zealand dollar is also very strong alongside the Australian dollar and is benefiting from dollar selling. As AUD/NZD is buy-biased in the short term, the Australian dollar currently holds a relative advantage.
NZD/USD also favors buying on dips.
■ Yen Crosses
EUR/JPY 185.59
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, the hourly chart is Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but the correction is clear from the short term through the hourly chart. EUR/USD is strong, but short-term yen buying is limiting EUR/JPY’s upside.
From a daily-chart perspective, it remains a buy-on-dips candidate. However, the current short-term strategy favors selling on rebounds.
GBP/JPY 216.63
The 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute and hourly charts are Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The daily pound-strength and yen-weakness trend remains intact. A short-term correction is underway, but hourly weakness is more limited than in EUR/JPY.
If the short-term decline stabilizes and the 15-minute and hourly charts return to buy territory, GBP/JPY could become a buy-on-dips candidate in line with the daily chart.
CHF/JPY 198.45
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, the hourly chart is Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The Swiss franc is strong against the dollar, but short-term yen buying is stronger against the franc. This creates a conflict between short-term selling on rebounds and daily-chart buying on dips.
AUD/JPY 113.67
All timeframes are rated Strong Buy.
It is one of the strongest currency pairs in the current market. Australian dollar strength and yen selling are aligned from short-term charts through the daily chart.
The basic strategy is to buy on dips. It is a strong market, but sharp advances can be followed by substantial corrections, so waiting for pullbacks is preferable to chasing higher prices.
NZD/JPY 94.91
All timeframes are rated Strong Buy.
New Zealand dollar buying and yen selling are clear, making this a strong uptrend similar to AUD/JPY. With Strong Buy signals through the daily chart, buying on dips remains favored.
CAD/JPY 115.48
The 5-minute chart is Neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are Strong Buy.
WTI crude’s Strong Buy daily-chart signal is supporting the Canadian dollar. Short-term momentum is somewhat muted, but the hourly and daily uptrend remains intact.
If short-term charts turn bullish, CAD/JPY becomes an easier buy-on-dips candidate.
EUR/GBP 0.8568
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Sell, the hourly chart is Sell, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The pound is stronger in the short term, while the euro is stronger on the daily chart. This can be viewed as a correction within the medium-term euro-strength trend.
Selling on rebounds is favored in the short term. To target the daily-chart uptrend, it is preferable to wait for the hourly chart to improve.
AUD/NZD 1.1977
The 5-minute chart is Strong Buy, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, the hourly chart is Buy, and the daily chart is Strong Sell.
The Australian dollar has gained a short-term advantage, but the New Zealand dollar remains stronger on the daily chart. With timeframes not aligned, this pair is better suited to short-term trading than medium- to long-term positions.
EUR/CHF 0.9352
The 5-minute chart is Strong Buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The daily euro-buying and Swiss franc-selling trend remains intact, but short-term and hourly direction is unstable.
EUR/CHF is a daily-chart buy-on-dips candidate, but it is difficult to chase higher until the hourly chart returns to buy territory.
■ Commodity Markets
Gold: $4,594.87
Gold Futures: $4,651.26
Both spot gold and gold futures are rated Strong Buy across all timeframes.
The uptrend is aligned from the short term through the daily chart, making gold one of the strongest assets in the current market. USD/JPY weakness and the short-term correction in U.S. equities are also supporting demand for gold.
The basic strategy is to buy on dips. However, with prices at elevated levels, waiting for a short-term correction and confirmation of renewed upside is preferable.
Silver: 69.883
All timeframes are rated Strong Buy.
Short-term momentum is even stronger than in gold, confirming broad capital inflows into precious metals. However, volatility is likely to be greater, so position sizing and profit-taking require more caution than with gold.
WTI Crude Oil: $86.44
The 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute chart is Sell, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Strong Buy.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but the market is in a short-term correction. It remains a buy-on-dips candidate in line with the daily chart, but short-term chasing should be avoided.
Natural Gas: 2.784
The 5-minute chart is Neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are Strong Buy, and the daily chart is Neutral.
Buying is dominant in the medium term, but the daily chart lacks direction. If trading the short-term advance, earlier profit-taking should be considered.
BTC/USD: $76,973
The 5-minute chart is Strong Sell, the 15-minute chart is Neutral, and the hourly and daily charts are Strong Buy.
Bitcoin maintains a strong uptrend from the medium term through the daily chart but is in a short-term correction.
It is a buy-on-dips candidate in line with the daily chart, though entries are easier once the 5-minute and 15-minute charts improve.
■ Equity Markets
U.S. Equities
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are rated Strong Sell from the 5-minute through the hourly charts. The Nasdaq 100 is also rated Strong Sell on the hourly chart.
However, daily charts for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 are Neutral. This is a short-term correction rather than a confirmed daily-chart downtrend.
Short-term selling on rebounds is favored. For daily-chart long positions, confirmation of an hourly-chart reversal is necessary.
European Equities
The DAX is buy-biased from the short term through the hourly chart and is the strongest major European index. The FTSE 100 also shows Strong Buy signals from the short term through the hourly chart.
By contrast, the CAC 40 is rated Strong Sell on both the hourly and daily charts. European markets are not moving uniformly: Germany and the U.K. are strong, while France is weak.
Japanese Equities
The Nikkei average is trading at 66,016.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are Strong Buy, the hourly chart is Neutral, and the daily chart is Sell.
The short-term rebound is strong, but the daily chart remains bearish. The current move should therefore be viewed as a rebound within a daily-chart downtrend.
Short-term buying is possible, but medium- to long-term long positions should be approached cautiously.
■ Strength Rankings
S Rank
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
AUD/JPY
NZD/JPY
Gold
Gold futures
Silver
A Rank
CAD/JPY
GBP/USD, hourly and daily charts
EUR/USD, hourly and daily charts
BTC/USD, hourly and daily charts
DAX
FTSE 100
B Rank
EUR/CHF daily chart
Natural gas, 15-minute and hourly charts
WTI crude, daily chart
Nikkei average, short term
■ Weakness Rankings
S Rank
USD/JPY, hourly and daily charts
Short-term Dow Jones
Short-term S&P 500
Nasdaq 100 hourly chart
Short-term EUR/JPY
Short-term CHF/JPY
CAC 40, hourly and daily charts
A Rank
USD/CHF daily chart
Short-term EUR/GBP
Short-term WTI crude
■ Market Themes
The central themes are Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar strength, higher precious metals, USD/JPY weakness, and a short-term correction in U.S. equities.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/JPY, and NZD/JPY are rated Strong Buy across all timeframes, offering the clearest directional setups.
Gold and silver are also rated Strong Buy across all timeframes. Safe-haven demand, inflation hedging, and dollar weakness are supporting inflows into precious metals.
USD/JPY is bearish on the hourly and daily charts. However, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY remain strong, indicating that this is not a broad yen-strength market; dollar weakness and resource-currency strength are more prominent.
■ Trading Strategy
Buy-Biased
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
AUD/JPY
NZD/JPY
CAD/JPY
Gold
Silver
Buy-on-Dips Candidates
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
BTC/USD
WTI crude
EUR/CHF
DAX
FTSE 100
Sell-on-Rebounds Candidates
USD/JPY
USD/CHF, in line with the daily chart
Short-term EUR/JPY
Short-term CHF/JPY
Short-term EUR/GBP
Short-term U.S. equity indices
CAC 40
Markets Requiring Caution
AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, gold, and silver are strong markets with buy signals aligned across all timeframes. However, after sustained gains, sharp profit-taking can emerge. Avoid chasing prices at the highs; prioritize pullbacks and confirmation of renewed upside.
USD/JPY is bearish on the hourly and daily charts. Selling on rebounds remains the basic strategy, but caution is needed for short-term buybacks in the 158 range.
The Nikkei average is showing a strong short-term rebound, but the daily chart remains bearish. Avoid confusing short-term momentum with the medium- to long-term trend; until the daily chart improves, this should be treated cautiously as a rebound phase.
