FX Strategy Update
July 6–10, 2026 | Market Outlook
Previous Week’s Trading Performance: +35,699 USD
■ Key Market Theme for the Coming Week
The biggest theme for next week is one simple question:
“Is 162 yen really the intervention line?”
Last week, USD/JPY rose into the 162 yen range for the first time since 1986, but then fell sharply amid growing concerns over possible intervention and weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data.
As a result, the market appears to be entering a new phase:
“The strong dollar trend remains intact, but traders are becoming reluctant to buy aggressively at higher levels.”
The main events for next week will be:
・FOMC Meeting Minutes
・U.S. Trade Balance
・RBNZ Policy Rate Decision
・Canadian Employment Data
・Japan Corporate Goods Price Index
Among these, the most important event will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
If the minutes strengthen market expectations for further rate hikes, dollar buying could resume.
■ Currency-by-Currency Strategy
USD/JPY (159.50–163.50)
The basic scenario remains buying on dips.
However, the 162 yen range carries a very strong sense of intervention risk, so this is not a market where we want to chase highs aggressively.
Buying interest is likely to emerge in the lower 160 yen range, while around 162 yen, prioritizing profit-taking should be the more effective strategy.
EUR/USD (1.1100–1.1600)
In the short term, there is room for a rebound due to dollar correction.
However, the medium-term view remains unchanged.
The basic strategy is to sell on rallies.
As long as the monetary policy gap between the FRB and the ECB continues, the upside for the euro is likely to remain limited.
GBP/JPY (212.50–217.50)
The pound itself remains relatively firm.
However, the main driver of price action is USD/JPY.
If USD/JPY falls sharply due to intervention concerns, GBP/JPY may also decline in tandem.
AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY
The RBNZ policy rate decision will be the key focus next week.
If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can maintain a hawkish stance, it could provide support for the New Zealand dollar.
However, if the central bank shifts to a more cautious tone, it may weigh on commodity currencies as a whole.
The Australian dollar may also be sensitive to comments from RBA officials, so price action after the events will be important to watch.
CAD/JPY
The main themes will be USMCA review discussions and Canadian employment data.
As long as the strong dollar trend continues, aggressive buying is unlikely to enter the market, and selling on rallies is likely to remain the dominant strategy.
■ Basic Strategy for This Week
The key point for next week remains the same:
“Focus only on markets with a clear theme.”
・If dollar strength continues, prioritize USD-related pairs
・For USD/JPY, where intervention concerns are strong, take profits earlier
・Avoid forcing trades in currency pairs that lack clear direction
Concentrating capital in markets that align with the broader market theme should lead to the most stable results.
■ Final Scenario
The current market is in a unique phase where two forces coexist:
“Dollar strength” and “intervention risk.”
If the FOMC Meeting Minutes are hawkish, dollar buying may strengthen again.
On the other hand, as USD/JPY approaches 162 yen, market attention will increasingly turn toward the response of Japanese authorities, making price action more volatile.
For next week, the most rational basic strategy is:
“Do not fight the dollar. But do not chase USD/JPY too far.”
■ Afterword: True Ability Is Revealed When You Lose
At the World Cup currently taking place, some teams are celebrating with joy, while others are shedding tears after defeat.
In fact, it is not only the players who feel strong stress and disappointment after a loss.
According to research, passionate sports fans often take the wins and losses of the teams they support as if they were their own. When their team loses, they may experience a decline in mood and even lower self-esteem.
This is sometimes referred to as “sports fan blues,” and it is a natural reaction experienced by many fans.
As I read about this, I felt that it was very similar to trading.
On days when we make a profit, we feel competent.
On the other hand, on days when we take a loss, we tend to blame ourselves.
However, what we should truly evaluate is not the result of each individual win or loss, but whether we were able to follow our rules.
In the world of sports, losing one match does not mean the season is over.
Accept the defeat.
Improve.
Move on to the next match.
That process, repeated over time, leads to the final result.
Trading is the same.
There is no need to deny yourself because of one loss.
What matters is to avoid being swept away by emotions and to regain your composure for the next opportunity.
Next week as well, rather than reacting emotionally to each individual result, I want to stay focused not on a single trade in front of me, but on the equity curve one year from now.
Step by step, I will continue to follow the rules with discipline and consistency.
