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+102,078 USD | From Dollar Distrust to Dollar Reversal — The Moment Market Sentiment Shifted

+102,078 USD | From Dollar Distrust to Dollar Reversal — The Moment Market Sentiment Shifted

✅ Trade Results (Jan 26–Jan 30)
📊 Weekly Total: +102,078 USD

A turbulent week where we didn’t fight the waves — we rode them.

There were losing trades.
But losses were cut quickly and remained small.
Winning trades were allowed to run.

This disciplined execution of small losses, large gains directly led to a strong weekly profit.

📌 Weekly FX Recap

Review: Jan 26–30
Outlook: Week of Feb 2

🧭 What Just Happened (Jan 26–30)

■ Market shift: from “Dollar distrust” to “Dollar short-covering”

  • U.S. government shutdown risk → USD/JPY plunged from the 159s to the 152s

  • Temporary deal to avoid shutdown

  • Kevin Warsh nominated as next Fed Chair
    → Concerns over central bank independence eased
    → Dollar buying returned

■ The sharp drop in Gold & Silver = correction of excessive dollar selling

The violent selloff from record highs in gold and silver signaled:

“The market is no longer willing to sell dollars unconditionally.”

A critical psychological shift.

■ USD/JPY still carries the “memory of intervention”

A 7-yen move in just days left traders hesitant to chase either direction.

→ A thin market prone to headline-driven spikes.

🔮 Scenario for the Week of Feb 2

Three key themes:

  1. Difficult to build positions ahead of Japan’s election

  2. Politics, credibility, and headlines dominate over data

  3. Will dollar short-covering continue after the precious metals collapse?

💱 USD/JPY

Expected range: 149.50 – 155.50

▶ Base case: nervous range trading

  • Pre-election caution

  • Immediate intervention risk has faded, but caution remains

▶ Conditions for yen weakness

  • Ruling party majority → fiscal expansion expectations

  • Warsh effect stabilizes the dollar

▶ Conditions for yen strength

  • Political turmoil → equities fall → yen buying

  • Renewed U.S. credibility concerns

This week is not about predicting direction,
but about targeting points of sudden acceleration.

💶 EUR/USD

Range: 1.1800 – 1.2350

  • Dollar distrust provides support

  • But continued dollar rebound caps upside

  • Feb 4 Eurozone HICP may trigger volatility

🗓 Key Events (by impact)

Date Event
Feb 8 Japan Lower House Election (weekend gap risk)
Feb 6 U.S. NFP
Feb 5 ECB / BOE
Feb 4 Eurozone HICP / U.S. ISM Services
Feb 3 RBA
Feb 2 BOJ “Summary of Opinions”

✅ Tactical Summary for the Week

  • Large trends are unlikely to form

  • Headlines can trigger sudden moves

  • Precious metals collapse hints at ongoing dollar rebound

  • Major gap risk over the election weekend

This week favors capturing the initial move,
not trying to extend positions.

📜 Afterword | Sleep habits: the most underrated trading strategy

Thank you for reading this week’s FX report.

Recent sleep research continues to confirm that sleep quality directly affects:

  • Decision making

  • Risk management

  • Emotional control

For traders, this is critical.

Because most trading mistakes do not come from poor analysis,
but from poor condition.

🧠 Lack of sleep quietly destroys decision quality

When sleep is disrupted:

  • You become overly sensitive to losses (cutting too early)

  • Or ignore losses (unable to cut)

  • You take unnecessary entries

  • You feel compelled to chase the market

This is not a chart problem.
It is a brain-state problem.

📉 Sleep noise is the same as market noise

Basic sleep hygiene:

  • Sleep at consistent times

  • Avoid screens before bed

  • Control light exposure

  • Improve the environment

This is identical to:

  • Following entry rules

  • Ignoring news noise

  • Keeping position sizing consistent

Reducing noise increases precision.

☀️ Good sleep is tomorrow’s trading edge

Many traders spend time trying to “read the market.”

In reality, improving your condition has a far higher expected return.

On days after good sleep:

  • Fewer unnecessary entries

  • Greater patience

  • Clearer judgment

This is not coincidence.

✨ Final thought: your condition is your best indicator

Before looking at charts, ask:

  • Did I sleep well last night?

  • Has my brain been overstimulated by screens and light?

  • Are my mind and body calm?

When these are aligned,
the market becomes naturally clearer.

Next week, before technicals —
start by strengthening the most powerful foundation: sleep.

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