〇 Technical Outlook — December 26, 2025
🔹 Dollar Majors (short-term correction across the board)
| Pair | Short-term (5–15m) | 1-hour | Daily | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 🟥 Strong sell | 🟥 Sell | 🟩 Strong buy | 🔄 Pullback in progress |
| GBP/USD | 🟥 Strong sell | 🟥 Sell | 🟩 Buy | ⏸ Currently correcting |
| AUD/USD | 🟥 Strong sell | 🟥 Sell | 🟩 Strong buy | 🔄 Pullback candidate |
👉 We have shifted into “short-term corrections inside a daily uptrend.”
➡ Chasing longs is dangerous now — wait until selling pressure weakens on the 15m–1h charts.
🔹 USD/JPY & Dollar Crosses (only the dollar is rebounding)
| Pair | Short-term | Daily | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 🟩 Strong buy | 🟩 → ⚪ Mixed | ⭐ Dollar-driven rebound |
| USD/CAD | 🟩 Strong buy | 🟥 Strong sell | ⚠️ Wait for sell-the-rally |
| USD/CHF | 🟩 Strong buy | 🟥 Strong sell | ⛔ Don’t chase higher |
| USD/NZD | 🟩 Strong buy | 🟥 Strong sell | ⛔ Upside limited |
👉 The dollar as a whole is in a rebound phase,
but the daily trend is not yet bullish.
➡ Long USD = short-term only.
➡ Medium-term bias still favors selling rallies.
🔹 Cross-Yen (trend intact)
| Pair | Short-term | Daily | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | 🟩 | 🟩 | ⭐ Pullback nearly complete |
| GBP/JPY | 🟩 | 🟩 | ⭐ Still one of the leaders |
| AUD/JPY | 🟩 | 🟩 | ⭐ Trend intact |
| CAD/JPY | 🟩 | 🟩 | ⭐ Stable |
| CHF/JPY | 🟩 | 🟩 | ⭐ Strong trend |
👉 The yen-selling trend has not broken.
Short-term yen buying looks like nothing more than temporary shake-outs.
🔹 Gold & BTC (gold is in a class of its own)
| Asset | View |
|---|---|
| XAU/USD | 🟩 “Strong buy” across all timeframes |
| BTC/USD | ⚪ Rebound, but still unstable |
👉 Gold has accelerated into the 4,500s,
and even shallow dips are quickly bought — a bullish overbought market.
➡ On intraday charts, pullbacks tend to become buying opportunities.
🧭 The Bigger Picture
🔺 Gold
🔺 Cross-yen
🔻 The Dollar (medium term)
🔁 USD/JPY — the only exception on the upside
＝ “Dollar rebound × persistent yen selling × gold remains strongest.”
🎯 Tactical Playbook (right now)
🟩 Preferred Longs
-
XAU/USD (Gold)
-
GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY
-
EUR/USD & AUD/USD (pullbacks only)
🟥 Preferred Shorts (sell rallies)
-
USD/CAD
-
USD/CHF
⚠️ Notes
-
USD/JPY: short-term up, but daily direction unclear
→ No need to force trades here. -
Dollar majors: we are simply waiting for the next long setup.
📝 Quick Takeaway
The dollar is rebounding — but the broader trend still points lower.
Cross-yen remain trend-follow buys,
and gold is best approached with “buy the dip”.
