✅ -65,435 USD
Even After a Rate Hike, the Yen Weakened
— What the BOJ Meeting Revealed About the Yen’s Fragility, and Where the Next Edge Lies —
Trading Results (Dec 15–Dec 19)
📊 Weekly Total: -65,435 USD
📊 FX Market Review Notes
Scope: Price action review for the week of Dec 15 / Strategic perspective for the week of Dec 22
■ Review of Last Week’s Price Action (Week of Dec 15)
Theme: “Rate Hike = Yen Strength” Did Not Hold
◆ USD/JPY
Early in the week, weak U.S. employment data pushed USD/JPY down to 154.40, strengthening the yen temporarily.
However, the decisive turning point was the BOJ meeting.
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Policy rate raised to 0.75%
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Market pricing: nearly 100% priced in
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The real focus: the post-hike narrative
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Market interpretation of Governor Ueda’s press conference:
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No concrete reference to the neutral rate
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Timing and number of additional hikes left unclear
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Emphasis on a data-dependent, cautious stance
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👉 The market’s conclusion was clear:
“The BOJ hiked, but the future path is unclear.”
As a result:
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Yen buying completely stalled
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Yen selling accelerated sharply
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USD/JPY surged to 157.40
▶ Key Takeaway
What the market wanted was not the fact of a rate hike,
but commitment and a roadmap for continued tightening.
It was the sense of a potential terminal rate—not the hike itself—that became the biggest driver of yen weakness.
◆ Euro (EUR)
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EUR/USD: 1.1804 → 1.1703 (correction on higher U.S. yields)
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EUR/JPY: 181.57 → 184.36 (new all-time highs)
👉 This was not so much euro strength,
but a week in which the yen was simply not chosen.
◆ British Pound (GBP)
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Temporarily softened on UK labor and inflation data
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Stabilized after the BOE meeting
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GBP/JPY climbed into the 209 handle
👉 More than the UK–Japan rate differential,
the dominant psychology was:
“There is no reason to hold yen.”
◆ Canadian Dollar (CAD)
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USD/CAD: Stalled in the 1.37 range
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CAD/JPY: Range-bound near 113
👉 Falling oil prices and yen weakness offset each other, resulting in no clear direction.
◆ Australian Dollar (AUD)
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AUD/JPY: High 103s → Low 102s
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AUD/USD: Range-bound in the 0.66 area
👉 Even amid yen weakness, AUD-led strength remained limited.
■ Strategic View for the Week Ahead (Week of Dec 22)
Theme: Thin Liquidity × Single-Catalyst Focus = Prepare for Overreactions
🔵 USD/JPY
Market Environment
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Christmas week → sharp drop in liquidity
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Yen-selling factors:
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Expansionary fiscal policy
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China-related geopolitical risks
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BOJ’s cautious stance
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Yen-buying factors:
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Only speculation of further hikes (no substance)
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👉 Selling rallies is difficult, but downside is also limited.
Key Event:
Dec 23 – U.S. Q3 GDP (Revised)
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Consensus: +3.2%
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GDPNow: +3.5%
Reaction Scenarios
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Upside surprise: Rate-cut expectations pushed back → USD up / JPY down
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Downside miss: USD selling, but limited yen buying
🔵 EUR/USD
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Post-ECB, a sense of rate-cut exhaustion
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Ukraine ceasefire expectations supportive
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French budget concerns remain a risk
👉 Unless there is a major shock,
dip-buying is likely to emerge.
🔵 GBP/JPY
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BOE delivered a narrowly split rate cut
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Expectations for further easing have receded
👉 Trend remains upward,
but thin liquidity raises the risk of sudden swings.
🔵 CAD/JPY
Focus: October GDP, crude oil prices
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Oil trading near five-year lows
👉 Direction may quickly tilt toward CAD selling depending on oil.
🔵 AUD/JPY
Dec 23: RBA meeting minutes
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Focus on whether inflation concerns persist
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Australia closed on Dec 25–26 → limited activity
👉 Trend remains upward.
■ Summary: Key Focus for the Week of Dec 22
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The BOJ hiked, but the yen did not strengthen
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Markets value future conviction over current rate levels
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Christmas week dynamics:
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Low liquidity × single major U.S. GDP release
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High risk of exaggerated reactions
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Conclusion
For USD/JPY:
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155 seen as a downside reference
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159 a nervous upside zone
📜 Afterword
“Your Expression Is Shaped by Daily Accumulation”
Thank you for reading this week’s FX report.
At first glance, this week’s feature—“How to lose face fat”—may seem unrelated to trading.
But if you read carefully, it overlaps surprisingly well with how we should approach markets.
The conclusion is simple:
There is no magic trick to change just one part instantly.
That is exactly how markets work.
📉 “I Just Want to Fix This One Part” Doesn’t Work in Trading Either
Targeted fat loss is scientifically difficult.
Your face changes only after your body changes overall.
Trading is the same.
Ideas like:
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“I want to make money consistently with just this one currency”
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“I want to win only during this time window”
tend to collapse over the long run.
Position sizing, sleep, mental state, review work—
when the whole system improves, results begin to show naturally.
💧 Water, Sleep, Salt Control — Unexciting but Powerful
The article emphasized basics with no instant payoff:
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Hydration
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Sleep
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Salt (swelling control)
In trading, the equivalents are:
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Position sizing
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The courage to rest
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Time spent not holding positions
These quiet habits ultimately create “good-looking” trading results.
Flashy techniques matter less than not letting swelling build up.
🏃♂️ Cardio Improves “Flow”
Full-body movement improves circulation—and your face naturally tightens.
Markets are no different:
-
Don’t overcrowd positions
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Keep capital circulating
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Preserve breathing room
When flow gets clogged,
both the body and the account inevitably swell.
📈 Final Thought: Your Face—and Your P&L—Reflect Your Life
Your expression is the sum of yesterday’s actions.
Your trading results are the sum of last week’s decisions.
Trying to change everything overnight usually fails.
Making small daily adjustments quietly works—
and one day, you notice the difference.
Next week as well:
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Don’t rush to cut
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Don’t force trades
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Calmly align your life and trading rhythm
And gradually tighten the “expression”
that the market reflects back at you.
