Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

🏆 +366,294 USD | USD Selling × Falling Yields × Gold Surge A Week Where the “Trades You Were Supposed to Take” Lined Up Perfectly After the FOMC

🏆 +366,294 USD | USD Selling × Falling Yields × Gold Surge

A Week Where the “Trades You Were Supposed to Take” Lined Up Perfectly After the FOMC

🏆 +366,294 USD

USD selling × declining interest rates × rising gold
— A week where post-FOMC textbook trades worked flawlessly —

✅ Trading Results (Dec 8–Dec 12)

Weekly Total: +366,294 USD

This week, the market rewarded those who embraced the classic post-FOMC playbook:

“Falling yields → weaker USD → higher GOLD.”

By aligning directly with this core macro trend, the result was one of the largest weekly profits of the year.

📈 Review of the Week (Dec 8)

Bottom line:

“After the FOMC, this was not a week to overthink — it was a week to simply follow the flow.”

The FOMC clearly marked a phase shift in the market.

■ FOMC: Rate Cut + Short-Term Treasury Purchases = De Facto Easing

The FOMC delivered:

  • A 0.25% rate cut

  • Introduction of short-term Treasury purchases

  • A clear shift in focus from inflation toward growth and financial conditions

The market reaction was textbook:

  • U.S. yields declined

  • USD weakened

  • Real yields fell → Gold surged

■ USD/JPY: The 156 Area Was the Ceiling

Early week:

  • Pre-FOMC positioning and higher U.S. yields pushed USD/JPY to 156.95

After the FOMC:

  • Falling U.S. yields reversed the move

  • Sharp drop to the 154.90 area

  • Consolidation around 155 ahead of the BoJ meeting

▶ Assessment

With:

  • U.S. rate cuts underway

  • BoJ rate hike expectations building

The U.S.–Japan yield spread is clearly narrowing.
USD/JPY was not a market to chase higher.

■ EUR/USD: A Clean Expression of Structural USD Weakness

  • Clear breakout above the Ichimoku cloud after the FOMC

  • Rally to the 1.1760 area

  • EUR/JPY reached the upper 182s, near historic highs

▶ Background

  • ECB discussing an end to rate cuts

  • U.S. firmly entering an easing cycle

→ Yield-differential logic fully justified EUR buying and USD selling

🪙 The Star of the Week: GOLD (XAU/USD)

Why did gold rise so perfectly?

The reasons were remarkably simple:

  • USD selling after the FOMC

  • Clear decline in U.S. yields

  • Falling real yields

  • Year-end risk-diversification demand

Everything aligned in gold’s favor.

This time, the key was not trading the initial spike, but staying positioned for trend continuation, which maximized returns.

🔮 Outlook for the Week of Dec 15

The market focus narrows to three key themes:

🔵 1. USD/JPY

Expected Range: 153.00 – 157.00

Key Event:

  • BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Dec 18–19)

  • Governor Ueda’s press conference

Market Baseline:

  • A 0.25% rate hike is over 90% priced in

  • The real focus is what comes next

Scenario Split:

  • Hike + cautious tone
    → “End-of-hiking” perception → JPY selling

  • Hike + hints of further hikes
    → Accelerated JPY strength

👉 This is the fork in the road:
“JPY weakness despite a hike” vs “JPY strength because of a hike.”

🔵 2. EUR/USD

Expected Range: 1.1550 – 1.1950

  • ECB expected to stay on hold

  • “End of rate cuts” → eventual hike discussions

  • U.S. firmly easing

→ Structural EUR advantage remains intact

Political risk:

  • French parliamentary debate on the 2026 budget

📅 Key Events (Week of Dec 15)

★ Top-Tier Events

  • BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting

  • U.S. CPI

  • U.S. Employment Report

  • ECB & BOE policy decisions

🧭 Final Summary

The reason this week was successful is clear:

  • Correctly identified the post-FOMC market structure

  • Focused on the core theme: USD selling & falling yields

  • Avoided unnecessary counter-trend trades

Next week represents one of the final major decision points of the year:

BoJ messaging × U.S. inflation

In year-end markets, discipline matters more than ever:

  • If the theme fits → trade decisively

  • If it doesn’t → stay out

📜 Afterword | “How You Use Medicine Is Not So Different from Trading”

Thank you for reading this week’s FX report.

This week’s topic — misconceptions about antidepressants — is surprisingly relevant to traders.

Antidepressants are often misunderstood as:

  • “Just boosting serotonin”

  • “Changing your personality”

  • “Creating dependency”

In reality, they are subtle, gradual, and require adjustment over time.

This closely mirrors trading.

📊 Overexpecting Instant Results Leads to Mistakes

Antidepressants are not magic pills.
They gradually rebalance the brain over weeks.

Trading works the same way.

Expecting:

  • “One strategy to win instantly”

  • “One data point to change everything”

only increases emotional instability.

Patience is a survival skill.

⚖️ What Works Is Different for Everyone

Just as medications affect people differently,
there is no universal trading solution.

A pair or timeframe that works for one trader
may be pure stress for another.

What matters is:

  • Adjust when it doesn’t fit

  • Don’t force continuity

  • Return to data and verification

🧠 Relying on Tools Is Not Weakness

Antidepressants are not escape — they are treatment.

Likewise:

  • Cutting losses

  • Reducing position size

  • Stepping away temporarily

These are not signs of weakness, but of healthy risk management.

📈 Conclusion: Markets and Minds Both Require Maintenance

Just as antidepressants don’t instantly fix life,
trading is not defined by a single win or loss.

Reduce assumptions.
Verify with data.
Move at your own pace.

That approach may seem slow —
but it is the most reliable path in both markets and mental health.

Next week, stay calm, stay disciplined,
and face the market with a well-balanced mindset.

More Insights