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Weekly Profit: $59,740 — Dollar Selling Surge and Gold’s Wild Rally Shake the Markets

Weekly Profit: $59,740 — Dollar Selling Surge and Gold’s Wild Rally Shake the Markets

The second week of November closed with a +59,740 USD gain.
Gold’s explosive ascent combined with accelerating USD selling pushed the market into full volatility mode.

At the same time, Japan effectively entered the Takaichi era, where a shift in fiscal policy has elevated the “yen depreciation theme” to a new level.

Meanwhile, the reopening of U.S. government agencies has triggered an unprecedented “indicator shuffle market”, as no one knows in what order the missing U.S. economic data will reappear.

🌏 Global FX Outlook — Week of November 17

(USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Cross-Yen, GOLD)

◆ USD/JPY｜153–159 — The Foundation for Yen Weakness Is Too Strong

The surprise of the week came from Japan:

“The withdrawal of the Primary Balance (PB) surplus target.”

This effectively means:

▶ Full shift toward pro-growth fiscal expansion
▶ BoJ’s slow tightening × fiscal expansion → accelerated yen selling

In the U.S., both October CPI and NFP are unlikely to be released, removing key rate catalysts and allowing USD/JPY to test higher levels more easily.

Strategy Notes

  • 153.5–154.2: Strong support zone — dip buying favored

  • 155 yen: Intervention risk — keep positions light & short-term

  • 158 zone: High probability of stop-hunt rallies

  • Invalidation: Break below 152.80

The dominant theme for now is:
“Takaichi Trade × Continued Yen Carry.”

◆ EUR/USD｜1.1400–1.1800 — Dollar Momentum Dominates Everything

Eurozone catalysts are scarce, leaving EUR/USD entirely dependent on USD flows.

With the U.S. government reopened, the market’s attention immediately shifts back to U.S. data.
This week, reactions to NY Fed Index, Philly Fed, PMI, and Michigan Sentiment will likely be stronger than usual.

Strategy Notes

  • 1.17s: Heavy selling pressure on rallies

  • 1.145–1.150: Short-term dip-buying zone

  • Break above 1.18: Room for a stop-triggered spike, but sustainability is questionable

📅 Key Events This Week

Date Event Notes
11/17 (Mon) Japan GDP Flash Possible negative print
11/18 (Tue) RBA Minutes, ADP Weekly Employment AUD & USD-sensitive
11/19 (Wed) UK CPI, FOMC Minutes High-impact
11/20 (Thu) SARB Meeting, Philly Fed Index ZAR & USD impact
11/21 (Fri) Japan CPI, US PMI Flash, Michigan High volatility expected

✨ Summary — Japan’s Fiscal Shift & America’s Data Shortage Running in Parallel

Next week presents a rare configuration:

  • Yen weakness structurally reinforced

  • USD and GOLD losing directional clarity due to missing U.S. data

Main Drivers

  • Takaichi’s near-certain appointment as the next PM

  • PB target withdrawal → symbolic shift in fiscal philosophy

  • Expansion of yen carry trade

  • U.S. government reopens

  • U.S. indicators returning in random order

  • Key events in the UK, Canada, Australia, South Africa

  • Unstable rate expectations in the U.S.

In conclusion:

▶ The yen remains the easiest currency to sell
▶ The USD and GOLD will struggle to find direction due to lack of fresh catalysts

A true “multi-theme hybrid market.”

📜 Afterword — Even the Courage to Drink Coffee Can Improve Market Insight

Thank you for reading this week’s FX report.

A new U.S. clinical trial overturned a long-held belief:
that coffee worsens atrial fibrillation (AFib).
In fact, daily coffee drinkers had about 40% lower recurrence risk.

This is symbolic for traders as well.

Rather than assuming “stimulants = bad”, the study reminds us to
look at data, review assumptions, and judge based on real reactions—
the exact mindset required in market analysis.

☕ Challenge Conventional Wisdom & New Opportunities Emerge

We once believed:

  • “Higher rates = lower stocks”

  • “Risk-off = stronger yen”

Yet recent markets have repeatedly broken these textbook rules.

As traders, we must do the same:
Let go of fixed beliefs like “this time of day is bad” or
“I’m not good at this pair.”

Removing those mental filters may reveal unexpected winning patterns.

💡 The Right Stimulus Restores Rhythm

Research shows caffeine blocks adenosine receptors,
helping maintain stable rhythm in heart rate and metabolism.

In markets, how we absorb “stimulus” — news, volatility, surprises —
defines our professionalism.

It’s not about avoiding shocks.
It’s about breathing with the wave.

☕✨ Conclusion — Don’t Fear Risk; Verify with Data

Neither markets nor coffee offer a “perfect safe zone.”
But with accurate data and personal experience,
we can discover hints of stability hidden within risk.

Next week, keep your own rhythm steady,
embrace the market’s waves like a warm cup of coffee,
and quietly seize the opportunities ahead. ☕📈

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