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-21,807 USD | Takaichi Government’s Yen Weakness — The Beginning of the End? Exploring the Outlook for USD/JPY, Gold, and the Euro

-21,807 USD | Takaichi Government’s Yen Weakness — The Beginning of the End?
Exploring the Outlook for USD/JPY, Gold, and the Euro

💰 Trading Results (Oct 6 – Oct 10)

Weekly P/L: –21,807 USD

🌏 Weekly Outlook (Week of Oct 13)

— Takaichi Trade Unwinds Loom as Political Instability and Dollar Ambiguity Dominate —

💴 USD/JPY – Has the “Takaichi Trade” Reached a Turning Point?

Expected Range: 150.00 – 156.00 JPY

The official dissolution of the LDP–Komeito coalition has introduced uncertainty into what markets have called the “Takaichi Trade” — a mix of yen-selling and stock-buying sentiment.
On Oct 10, stock-index futures plunged and the yen strengthened toward the ¥152 range.

Concerns over policy paralysis and legislative deadlock are growing, and Prime Minister Takaichi’s recent remark that she “does not intend to allow excessive yen weakness” has drawn renewed attention.
Some market participants believe that position-unwinding of yen shorts has already begun.

Strategy Notes:

  • Buy on dips near 150.5 – 151.5 JPY

  • Take profits or consider shorts around 153 – 154 JPY

  • Above 155 JPY, beware of possible intervention; scale down and take profits in stages

  • Continued political instability could fuel temporary yen buying

  • Expect high volatility throughout the week

💶 EUR/USD – Lack of Direction as French Politics and U.S. Rate-Cut Expectations Offset

Expected Range: 1.1400 – 1.1750

The pair remains range-bound amid French political uncertainty and a data vacuum from the U.S. due to the government shutdown.
Fears of renewed U.S.–EU trade tensions under the Trump administration add headwinds, though growing rate-cut expectations in the U.S. could provide some euro support.

Strategy Notes:

  • Prioritize selling around 1.17 levels

  • Buy on dips near 1.145 – 1.150

  • If 1.175 breaks, consider partial follow-through but confirm trend sustainability

🪙 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Bullish Momentum Above $4,000 Persists

Gold continues to hover near record highs as U.S. long-term yields decline and the dollar softens.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and East Asia also underpin its safe-haven appeal.

Strategy Notes:

  • Buy on dips at $4,000 – $4,020

  • Short-term momentum buys at $4,050 – $4,080

  • Take profits above $4,120; cut risk if below $3,960

📅 Key Events Next Week (Oct 13 – Oct 18)

Date Event / Indicator Key Focus
Oct 13 (Mon) China Trade Balance, OPEC Monthly Report Impact on oil & commodity prices
Oct 14 (Tue) RBA Minutes, UK Employment, Germany ZEW Moves led by AUD & GBP
Oct 15 (Wed) China CPI/PPI, Japan 20-yr Bond Auction Asia market sentiment check
Oct 16 (Thu) Australia Jobs & Retail, U.S. PPI Focus on AUD and U.S. yields
Oct 17 (Fri) U.S. TIC Flows, BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Speech Policy signals & capital flows
Oct 18 (Sat) Fed Blackout Period Begins Fewer Fed remarks → market consolidation

📌 Summary

The “Takaichi Trade” remains a key theme, but political instability now challenges the durability of yen weakness.
USD/JPY likely trades between 150 and 156, with reversal risk in focus.
EUR/USD lacks momentum, while Gold stays firmly bullish.
Next week’s political statements, Takaichi–Trump meeting, and FOMC minutes will serve as major turning points for the market.

📜 Afterword | Can Changing Your Sleep Rhythm Change Your Market Perspective?

Thank you for reading this week’s FX Report.

This week’s featured article explored a personal experiment: “How does shifting your sleep schedule by just one hour affect your performance?”
Surprisingly, even a one-hour change had a significant impact — lower energy, reduced focus, and mood instability throughout the day.

This resonates deeply with traders.

💤 Quality of rhythm matters more than quantity of sleep.
Everyone’s optimal duration differs — some perform best on 7 hours, others need 9.
What matters most is consistency. Just as markets require discipline and routine, your mental clarity depends on a stable sleep pattern.

💡 Trading & Sleep — Common Ground:

  • Lack of sleep → emotional decisions, delayed stop-losses

  • Oversleeping → slower reactions, reduced focus

  • Steady sleep → calm risk management & clear chart reading

✅ Conclusion: Better sleep equals better trading.
Just as a one-hour shift can alter performance, your daily rhythm is deeply linked to market discipline.
This weekend, take a moment to review your own “optimal sleep rhythm.”
It might be the hidden fundamental that defines your next week’s trading results.

Stay calm, rested, and sharp for the week ahead.

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