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💹 FX Weekly Report: Gold Surge Delivers +58,752 USD — Focus Shifts to FOMC, PCE & LDP Leadership Race

💹 FX Weekly Report: Gold Surge Delivers +58,752 USD — Focus Shifts to FOMC, PCE & LDP Leadership Race

✅ Weekly Performance (Sep 15–19)

  • P/L: +58,752 USD

  • Breakdown:

    • Gold longs were the key profit driver.

    • AUD/USD closed slightly positive.

    • EUR/JPY weakness triggered stop-losses, partially offsetting gains.

    • Net result: A solid weekly profit, thanks to gold’s resilience.

Backdrop: Dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions — notably the Russia–Belarus “Zapad 2025” joint drills escalating NATO concerns — fueled safe-haven demand for gold.

🌍 Macro Environment Outlook (Sep 22 Week)

  • United States:

    • FOMC cut rates by 0.25%, signaled two more cuts this year.

    • Market shifted away from excessive dovish bets; focus turns to PMI, GDP final, jobless claims, and PCE.

  • Japan:

    • BOJ held rates but began ETF sales.

    • Dissenting votes (two members) briefly lifted the yen, but Ueda’s cautious tone softened the impact.

    • The LDP leadership race adds short-term political noise.

  • Eurozone:

    • ECB expected to pause easing. Euro downside appears limited.

  • UK:

    • BOE left rates unchanged, scaled back QT.

    • GBP remains tied to gilt market volatility.

  • Canada:

    • BOC cut rates to 2.50%.

    • Stance remains data-dependent.

  • Australia & New Zealand:

    • Australia: CPI is the key trigger.

    • NZ: GDP weakness reinforces expectations of further easing.

  • South Africa:

    • SARB kept rates at 7.00%.

    • ZAR supported by revised inflation forecasts.

🔔 Key Events Next Week

  • Sep 22 (Mon): LDP leadership election announcement, Global PMI prep

  • Sep 23 (Tue): PMI Flash (Germany, Eurozone, UK, US), OECD Outlook, Trump UN speech

  • Sep 24 (Wed): Australia CPI (Aug), Germany Ifo

  • Sep 25 (Thu): US GDP final (Q2), weekly jobless claims

  • Sep 26 (Fri): Tokyo CPI, US PCE deflator, University of Michigan sentiment

💵 Strategy Ranges & Outlook

Pair Range Strategy & Commentary
USD/JPY 146.50–150.00 Sell rallies at 148.5–149.8; stop above 150. Buy dips near 146.5.
EUR/USD 1.1650–1.2000 Buy in 1.172–1.180; take profit near 1.19. Heavy profit-taking if >1.20.
GBP/JPY 198.00–203.00 Buy dips at 198.5, TP near 200–201. Watch gilts for shocks.
CAD/JPY 105.50–109.00 Sell rallies 107.8–108.8; TP near 106.0. Risk of >109 if BOC pauses cuts.
AUD/JPY 95.50–99.00 Sell rallies 97.8–98.8; buy dips near 96.0. CPI event risk → reduce size.
NZD/JPY 85.00–87.00 Weak GDP = selling bias; watch for short-cover if strong data.
ZAR/JPY 8.40–8.80 Buy dips 8.45–8.50, TP near 8.70–8.75. Avoid if <8.40.
Gold (XAU/USD) 3520–3650 Buy near 3550, TP at 3600–3625. Long-term core bids at 3485–3450.

📝 Trading Guidance Summary

  • USD/JPY: Watch for a spike toward 150 → take profits.

  • EUR/USD: Weak PCE could push toward 1.19+; secure gains above 1.20.

  • GBP/JPY: Sideways chop; evaluate dips <198 for long entries.

📜 Afterword | “A Healthy Mind Sharpens Market Vision”

This week’s mental health reflections reminded me that markets and personal resilience are intertwined. WHO notes 60% of people globally are in the workforce — most of life is spent working, so sustainable habits are essential.

  • For individuals: Take breaks, maintain rhythm in sleep/diet, and set boundaries.

  • For teams/communities: Encourage positive feedback, mutual respect, and peer support.

  • For organizations: Enable flexibility and foster a culture where mental health can be discussed openly.

For traders, this translates to avoiding screen fatigue, focusing on key decision points, and preserving clarity.

✅ Conclusion: Just as we manage risk in trades, we must manage the environment we operate in. A calmer, healthier mindset is the hidden edge in long-term trading success.

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