๐Ÿ“Š Technical Analysis & Trade Strategy Summary โ€“ August 5, 2025

๐Ÿ“Š Technical Analysis & Trade Strategy Summary โ€“ August 5, 2025


๐Ÿฆ Major Currency Pairs

EUR/USD (1.1544)

Short-term rebound, but daily chart remains weak.
โœ… Strategy: Watch for selling opportunities around 1.1550โ€“60. A break below 1.1500 could resume downside pressure.

USD/JPY (147.61)

Weak on the daily chart, but showing signs of recovery short term.
โœ… Strategy: Buy dips above 148.00; caution if price drops below 147.00โ€“147.30.

GBP/USD (1.3279)

Selling pressure remains dominant.
โœ… Strategy: Favor selling near 1.3300. A break below 1.3200 may accelerate losses.

AUD/USD (0.6458)

Persistent bearish bias.
โœ… Strategy: Sell the rally near 0.6480โ€“90. Watch 0.6420 as a key downside level.

USD/CAD (1.3801)

Buy-the-dip bias remains intact.
โœ… Strategy: Buy around 1.3770โ€“80, aiming for breakout above 1.3830 to confirm trend resumption.


๐Ÿ’ฑ Cross Yen & Other Assets

EUR/JPY (170.40)

Bullish short-term bias, but daily still under pressure.
โœ… Strategy: Look to buy dips near 170.00โ€“170.20. A break below 169.80 may trigger a pullback.

GBP/JPY (196.01)

Choppy and volatile price action.
โœ… Strategy: Sell into rallies around 196.20โ€“196.50.

AUD/JPY (95.33)

Short-term strength capped by daily resistance.
โœ… Strategy: Longs above 95.80. Exit if price drops below 95.00.

CAD/JPY (106.97)

Uptrend holding.
โœ… Strategy: Stay long if holding above 107.00. Caution if it breaks below 106.50.

CHF/JPY (182.20)

Short- and medium-term buy signals remain valid.
โœ… Strategy: Support zone around 182.00. Watch for bullish continuation if reclaiming 183.00+.


๐Ÿช™ Commodities & Crypto

XAU/USD (Gold: 3,352.53)

Bearish pressure persists.
โœ… Strategy: Sell near 3,360 zone. A break below 3,330 opens further downside.

BTC/USD (114,970)

Buyers still in control, but slight correction on the daily.
โœ… Strategy: Watch 115,000โ€“116,000 for breakout potential. 113,500 acts as key support.


๐Ÿš€ Strategic Focus (Late Aug 5, 2025)

๐Ÿ”ผ Buy Opportunities (Dip / Continuation)

  • USD/CAD, USD/NZD, CHF/JPY (Strong dollar and franc bias)

  • EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY (Short-term technical recovery)

  • BTC/USD (Medium-term long setup)

๐Ÿ”ฝ Sell Opportunities (Pullback / Short-term)

  • EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD (Rally selling setup)

  • NZD/CAD (Broad weakness continues)

  • XAU/USD (Gold: short-term bearish reversal continues)


๐Ÿ“Œ Key Technical Levels

  • EUR/USD: Break above 1.1550 turns trend; below 1.1500 increases downside risk

  • USD/JPY: Above 148.00 = bullish continuation; below 147.00 = corrective phase

  • XAU/USD: Heavy resistance at 3,360โ€“3,370; watch for breakdown below 3,330

  • BTC/USD: Eyes on holding 115,500 and breakout over 116,000

More Insights

๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ Middle East Conflict Stalemate โ€” Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight ๐ŸŒ Market Theme โ€œWar ร— Inflation ร— Uncertaintyโ€ Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides โ€” the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other โ€” continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. ๐Ÿ›ข Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum ๐Ÿ’ฑ FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis โ†’ USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets ๐Ÿ‘‰ These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. ๐Ÿ“Š Tonightโ€™s Major Event ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% ๐Ÿ‘‰ The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. ๐Ÿ“Š Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production ๐ŸŽ™ Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: โ€œThe U.S. dollarโ€™s role as a safe-haven asset.โ€ ๐Ÿ“ˆ New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict โ†’ Higher oil prices โ†’ Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. ๐Ÿงญ Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: โ€œMarkets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.โ€ This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ Middle East Conflict Stalemate โ€” Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight ๐ŸŒ Market Theme โ€œWar ร— Inflation ร— Uncertaintyโ€ Tensions in the

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