Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

📊 July 7, 2025｜Technical Analysis & Trade Strategy Summary

📊 July 7, 2025｜Technical Analysis & Trade Strategy Summary

🏦 Major Currency Pairs

EUR/USD (1.1726)

  • Strong selling on short- to intraday charts; daily chart still shows buying control
    ✅ Strategy: A clear break below 1.1700 risks accelerating downside. For rebound attempts, consider limited longs using daily support.

USD/JPY (145.40)

  • Strengthening bullish bias
    ✅ Strategy: Favor buying on dips. The 144.80–145.00 zone offers solid support; a retest of the 146 level is possible.

GBP/USD (1.3604)

  • Mixed momentum in the short term
    ✅ Strategy: Watch the battle at 1.3600. A break above 1.3650 is key to a bullish reversal. Stand aside in the short term.

AUD/USD (0.6500)

  • Bearish momentum on intraday charts; neutral on daily
    ✅ Strategy: Favor selling on rallies. Stops above 0.6530; near-term downside target around 0.6470.

USD/CAD (1.3662)

  • Bullish recovery on intraday to daily charts
    ✅ Strategy: 1.3620–1.3630 is a key support zone. Consider buying on pullbacks.

💱 Crosses & Other Assets

EUR/JPY (170.50) / GBP/JPY (197.81) / AUD/JPY (94.51)

  • Overall: Uptrend on daily charts; mixed on short-term
    ✅ Strategy: Maintain a long bias, but watch for short-term pullbacks. Caution on support breaks.

CAD/JPY (106.43) / CHF/JPY (182.40) / NZD/JPY (87.21)

  • CAD & CHF showing strength; NZD remains weak
    ✅ Strategy: Favor dip buying in CAD/JPY & CHF/JPY; selling rallies in NZD/JPY.

XAU/USD (Gold: 3,303.18)

  • Strong selling pressure across all timeframes
    ✅ Strategy: Continue selling on rallies. Maintain bearish bias unless price breaks 3,320. Next support lies in the 3,260–3,280 range.

BTC/USD (108,810)

  • Selling pressure on short- to intraday charts
    ✅ Strategy: Watch if 108,000 can hold. If held, consider buying the dip; if broken, beware of deeper decline.

🚀 Highlighted Trade Ideas

🔼 Buy Opportunities (Buy the Dip / Trend Continuation)

  • USD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY (Yen-selling trend)

  • EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY (Supportive overall trend)

  • USD/CAD (Rebuilding bullish momentum)

🔽 Sell Opportunities (Sell the Rally / Short-Term Momentum)

  • EUR/USD, AUD/USD (Strong downside momentum)

  • NZD/JPY, XAU/USD, BTC/USD (Ongoing bearish trends)

  • GBP/USD (Lacking direction, short bias favored)

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

Read More