✅ [June 5 FX Market Summary] Dollar in Choppy Recovery Mode, But Tariff and Rate Cut Expectations Cap Upside｜Focus on ISM Services Index
📰 Fundamental Summary
USD: Lacking Clear Direction
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Concerns about global economic slowdown due to Trump’s tariff hikes continue to weigh on the dollar. Downward pressure on USD remains, though short-term moves are choppy and without a clear trend. Markets appear to be gradually pricing in Trump’s rhetoric.
Key Events: U.S. ADP Employment & ISM Services Index
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ADP Employment Forecast: +114K (Previous: +62K)
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ISM Services Index Forecast: 52.0 (Previous: 51.6)
→ Market expectations for the June 7 Nonfarm Payrolls could shift significantly depending on these results.
JOLTS Job Openings Beat Expectations
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Reported at 7.391 million, stronger than forecast. Labor market strength is acknowledged, but offset by weakness in the ISM Manufacturing Index.
Canadian Dollar: Bank of Canada Rate Decision in Focus
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Market divided between a hold and a rate cut. Volatility likely to increase after the announcement.
Europe: Final Services PMIs Due
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Unless major revisions are seen, impact is expected to be limited. The market is showing signs of “event fatigue.”
💹 Technical Strategy Highlights (June 5)
💵 USD/JPY
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Yen weakened after comments from BoJ Governor, pushing USD/JPY briefly into the 144.60 zone.
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However, the 145.00 level remains heavy with continued selling pressure.
Strategy: Sell around 144.80–145.00, stop above 145.50.
💶 EUR/USD
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Euro remains firm despite mixed data.
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Support seen at 1.1330–1.1350. A break above 1.1400 could signal renewed upside.
Strategy: Maintain dip-buying stance. Stop out below 1.1280.
💷 GBP/JPY
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Lacks direction ahead of final UK PMI data.
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Resistance near 195.00, support around 193.60.
Strategy: Watch for breakout trades or consider counter-trend trades within the range.
📌 Key Events Today
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U.S. ADP Employment Report (May)
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U.S. ISM Services PMI (May)
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U.S. Beige Book, Bank of Canada statement and press conference, Crude oil inventory report
💬 Commentary
The overall dollar weakness trend remains intact, but short-term rebounds may occur depending on data. Today’s main focus is the U.S. ISM Services Index. Selling the dollar on rallies remains a valid strategy in the current environment.
