✅ Post-Trump Speech Market Outlook: Fading Momentum & Economic Uncertainty
🔻 Market Reaction: Temporary Relief but Caution Remains on Economic Outlook
President Trump’s 100-day address passed without major surprises, providing short-term relief to markets.
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He announced relaxed regulations on auto parts but avoided harsh protectionist rhetoric.
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While expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed, he did not mention dismissing Chair Powell.
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The softened tone appears to stem from pushback by U.S. businesses, especially in retail and manufacturing.
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Audience enthusiasm, particularly in the back rows, was muted—possibly reflecting falling approval ratings.
🏭 Real Economy & Corporate Earnings Show Mounting Pressure
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During earnings season, many companies have flagged uncertainty over tariffs, complicating forward guidance.
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European automakers like Mercedes and Stellantis have avoided giving full-year outlooks.
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Risk is rising that the real global economy may experience deeper slowdown over the coming quarters.
📊 Today’s Key Economic Releases (High Impact)
| Region | Indicator | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | Q1 Preliminary GDP | Risk of slowdown both QoQ and YoY |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Q1 Preliminary GDP | Signs of stagnation expected |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | Annualized Q1 GDP | Market forecast revised down from +0.4% to -0.2% |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | ADP jobs, PCE core, personal income/spending, ECI | All key to confirming slowdown or technical recession |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | February GDP | Potential directional trigger for CAD |
📌 Especially note the triple U.S. data combo:
PCE deflator (inflation) + ECI (wage inflation) + GDP all released same day = highly relevant for FOMC guidance.
📢 Speeches & Events Calendar
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Japan’s Minister Akazawa continues U.S. visit through May 2 (trade negotiations in focus)
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ECB officials (Villeroy, Lombardelli, Müller) scheduled to speak
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Bank of Canada meeting minutes (April 16) to be released
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Key U.S. earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Caterpillar, Qualcomm, Robinhood
🎯 Trading Strategy Bias: Range Trading Amid Caution
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USD/JPY: Hovering near 143, upside capped. Expect range 140–144.
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EUR/USD: Consolidation near 1.08–1.10. Breakout depends on data results.
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Gold: Still in correction mode; 2900–2955 USD box range.
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Bitcoin: Recovery attempt hinges on U.S. bond yields and USD direction.
✍️ Summary
With Trump’s speech out of the way, markets face a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact” phase.
Today is especially volatile with data + earnings + speeches stacked together.
Adopt a flexible, short-term trading approach, ready to switch bias if key levels break.
📍 Short-Term Trade MAP (as of April 30, 2025)
USD/JPY
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15-min: Range between 141.20–142.60. Selling pressure above, option support below.
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1-hour: 200SMA (142.20) resistance. RSI neutral.
Strategy:
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🔼 Break above 142.60 → Buy toward 143.20
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🔽 Break below 141.20 → Sell toward 140.60–80
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Caution: BOJ headlines & U.S. data could spark volatility
EUR/USD
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15-min: Consolidation 1.0700–1.0760. Buying interest emerging near lows
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1-hour: MACD turning bullish
Strategy:
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🔼 Buy near 1.0740 → Target 1.0780
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❌ Stop loss below 1.0700
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💡 If 1.0700 breaks → shift to bearish outlook
Gold (XAU/USD)
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15-min: 2335–2370 box; shrinking volatility
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1-hour: MA convergence, MACD hinting bearish
Strategy:
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🔼 Buy dips near 2335–2340 → Target 2360–2370
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🔽 Sell on break below 2330 → Target 2300–2285
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⚠️ Suggest trading NY session post-data for clarity; avoid Tokyo whipsaws
