【Trump Tariff Round 2 Hits – Signs of “Sell America” as Risk-Off Mood Persists】
― U.S. Bond Sell-Off, Dollar Weakness, and Stock Declines Continue to Pressure Risk Assets ―
■ Confidence in the U.S. Wavers? Round 2 Tariffs Trigger Yield Surge, Market Focus Shifts to “Selling America”
Today, former President Trump’s “Round 2” of reciprocal tariffs came into effect, with total tariffs on Chinese goods soaring to 104%, reigniting global trade fears.
- Trump insists “over 70 countries are requesting negotiations,” but market caution is only intensifying
- U.S. 30-year bond yields briefly spiked above 5.00%, signaling a shift from risk-averse bond buying to broad distrust in U.S. assets
- Some market participants are calling this the beginning of a “sell America” phase
📌 Key Takeaway:
If U.S. bond yields continue rising, we may see an accelerated move into dollar selling, equity sell-offs, and gold buying.
■ Dollar Weakness Dominates: EUR and GBP Rally, Oceania Currencies Remain Fragile
In FX markets, the dollar is under broad pressure across major pairs.
| Currency Pair | Current Trend | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Dropped to 144.58, now in low 145s | Despite surging yields, JPY buying dominates; volatility remains high |
| EUR/USD | Rising into high 1.10s | Safe haven + relatively hawkish ECB stance |
| GBP/USD | Moves into low 1.28s | Driven by USD weakness; little GBP-specific support |
| AUD/USD, NZD/USD | Flat to weak | China exposure + risk asset selling pressure |
→ The market reaction is less about broad dollar weakness and more about repricing U.S. risk. JPY, EUR, and CHF remain preferred.
■ What to Watch: U.S. Response and the Market’s Test of Confidence
📌 Upcoming Key Events & Data:
| Time (JST) | Event | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Japan’s MoF, FSA, BoJ 3-way meeting | 🔴 Watch for verbal intervention that could trigger more JPY buying |
| NY Morning | USTR Rep. Tai testifies before House | 🔴 Key for clues on possible softening of Trump’s tariff stance |
| NY Afternoon | FOMC Minutes (Mar 18–19 meeting) | 🔶 Focus on how deeply tariff risks were discussed |
| Others | MBA mortgage apps, wholesale inventories | 🔵 Low priority compared to tariff-related developments |
📌 A $39B 10-year U.S. Treasury auction is also scheduled. A weak result could further fuel the “sell America” narrative.
■ Trading Strategy: Risk-Off Continues – Focus on Dollar Weakness & Yen Strength
🔑 Tactical Positioning for Today and Beyond:
| Asset / Pair | Bias | Key Levels |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Sell on Rallies | 145.80–146.20 seen as resistance; 144.00 retest in view |
| EUR/USD | Bullish Bias | Watch for breakout above 1.1090–1.1120 zone |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Buy on Dips | U.S. bond fears + inflation concerns may push toward 2300–2320 |
| AUD/USD, NZD/USD | Continue Selling | Clear weakness; short setups vs CHF or JPY remain effective |
📊 Summary
| Theme | Market Context / Strategic View |
|---|---|
| Trump Tariffs | Round 2 escalates fears, strengthening “sell America” momentum |
| U.S. Bond Yields | Long-term yields spike, spreading dollar-negative sentiment |
| FX Market | JPY, EUR, and CHF favored; AUD/NZD remain vulnerable |
| Strategy | Stay positioned for risk-off – short USD, long JPY until themes shift decisively |
