๐ February 17 โ USD/JPY Plummets on US CPI! Reaffirming the Importance of Risk Management
โ Weekly Trading Results (February 10 โ February 14)
๐ Total P&L: -90,113 USD
๐จ Main Stop-Loss Trades
- EUR/USD Short at 1.0330 โ Stopped out at 1.0412 (-82 pips)
- USD/CHF Long at 0.9146 โ Stopped out at 0.9093 (-53 pips)
โ Only Profitable Trade
- AUD/JPY Long at 96.62 โ Closed at 96.80 (+18 pips)
๐ Market Characteristics
- Stronger-than-expected US CPI โ USD buying trend
- Subsequent sharp decline in US long-term yields โ USD selling and JPY buying intensified
- Ukraine ceasefire negotiations โ Risk-on sentiment boosted EUR and AUD
- Gold (XAU/USD) surged significantly โ Continued inflows into safe-haven assets
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surpassed $100K but entered a correction phase
๐ Biggest Mistakes
- Failed to capture the sharp drop in USD/JPY
- Misjudged the uptrend in EUR and GBP
- Position sizing and risk management were inadequate
๐ Last Weekโs Market Overview (February 10 โ February 14)
๐ฏ 1. USD/JPY
๐ Trend: High volatility and sharp decline
๐ Market Movements
- US CPI exceeded expectations, pushing USD/JPY up to 154.80
- Then, US long-term yields plummeted, bringing USD/JPY down to the 152 level
- BOJ rate hike expectations also strengthened JPY buying pressure
๐ฏ 2. EUR/USD
๐ Trend: EUR buying momentum
๐ Market Movements
- EUR surged on Ukraine ceasefire progress
- USD weakened, lifting EUR/USD to the mid-1.04s
- Reduced ECB rate-cut expectations provided support for the euro
๐ฏ 3. GBP/JPY
๐ Trend: Wide fluctuations
๐ Market Movements
- BOE’s 0.25% rate cut decision led to GBP selling
- GBP rebounded on risk-on sentiment
- Dropped to the 188 level before recovering to around 193
๐ฏ 4. Gold (XAU/USD)
๐ Trend: Steady uptrend
๐ Market Movements
- Geopolitical risks and Fed policy uncertainty drove demand
- Remained strong throughout the week, though some profit-taking occurred by the weekend
- A short-term correction is possible, but buying dips remains a viable strategy
๐ฏ 5. Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
๐ Trend: Correction after surpassing $100K
๐ Market Movements
- After breaking the $100K mark, BTC faced short-term profit-taking and weakened
- A push above $110K requires new catalysts
- Continue applying a “buy-the-dip” strategy
๐ Outlook for the Week of February 17
๐ฏ 1. USD/JPY
๐ Trend: Range-bound trading expected
๐ Key Factors
- Japanโs January CPI on the 21st โ May strengthen BOJ rate hike expectations
- FOMC Minutes (Jan 28-29) โ Assessing the possibility of Fed rate cuts
- US-Japan Summit โ Trumpโs potential remarks on โreducing US trade deficit with Japanโ could drive JPY appreciation
๐ฏ 2. EUR/USD
๐ Trend: Weakening
๐ Key Factors
- Progress in Ukraine ceasefire talks
- ECB rate-cut expectations may cap EUR gains
- German general election on the 23rd โ Risk of far-right AfD party gains impacting EUR
๐ฏ 3. Gold (XAU/USD)
๐ Trend: Short-term correction possible, but buy-the-dip strategy remains valid
๐ Key Factors
- Persistent geopolitical risks
- Uncertainty around Fedโs monetary policy
- Beware of short-term profit-taking while looking for dip-buying opportunities
๐ฏ 4. Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
๐ Trend: Range-bound around $100K
๐ Key Factors
- A push above $110K requires new bullish catalysts
- Maintaining a short-term dip-buying strategy
๐ Key Economic Events for the Week of February 17
๐
February 17-18 – RBA Policy Decision (AUD)
๐
February 19 – RBNZ Policy Decision (NZD)
๐
February 19 – South Africa January CPI (ZAR)
๐
February 23 – German General Election (EUR)
๐ข Conclusion:
The market is digesting the impact of the US CPI release and US-Japan trade negotiations while continuing a risk-on trend.
FOMC Minutes and Japanโs CPI will be key to the next moves in the forex market๐ฅ
๐ Lessons from This Week
โ Position sizing was inadequate โ Risk management must be reinforced
โ Misjudged trend reversals โ Need to stay flexible with market themes
โ
Mental discipline is key! โ A well-managed trading mindset leads to long-term success
Next week, I will focus on careful entries and aim to accumulate profits consistently๐ฅ
