A Strong Start in 2025 with EUR Selling and Bitcoin Buying!
Trading Results: December 30 – January 3
- Total Profit: +24,448 USD
- Summary: Focused on short trades in EUR/USD and buy positions in Bitcoin during the thin year-end and New Year markets. Careful position management led to a comfortable positive finish.
Next Week’s Key Focus: U.S. Employment Report and Dollar Trends
1. Review of the Previous (November) Employment Report
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): +227K (exceeding the market consensus of +202K)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (worsened from 4.1%)
- Highlights: While manufacturing and retail sector jobs declined, leisure/hospitality and healthcare sectors remained strong.
2. This Month’s (December) Related Indicators and Projections
- NFP: Forecast: +150K (lower than previous)
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (unchanged)
Supporting Data:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 220K (slightly higher than November)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 (beat forecast of 48.2, but employment sub-index at 45.3, showing weakness)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 53.4 (expected improvement)
- ADP Employment Change: +143K (nearly the same as the previous +146K)
3. Potential Market Impact
- USD/JPY: If the employment report misses estimates, look for further dollar selling; if it exceeds, USD/JPY could rise toward the upper 157 range.
- EUR/USD: A weaker dollar could push it back above the 1.05 level.
- Bitcoin: Relatively less influenced by the dollar, so continue monitoring the ongoing uptrend.
Strategies for the Start of 2025
Short-Term Strategies
- USD/JPY: Watch for increased volatility early in the year; look for a buy entry opportunity.
- EUR/USD: Maintain a selling bias. Adjust positions carefully based on economic data.
- Bitcoin: If it moves above 98,000 USD, expect a possible further rally and respond actively with buy positions.
Mid-to-Long-Term Outlook
- Continued Dollar Strength: Market expectations remain for a slower Fed rate-cut pace; watch how long the dollar strength persists.
- Caution on Yen Weakness: Remain alert to potential Japanese government or BOJ intervention around the upper 157 range. Choose buy opportunities carefully.
P.S. Reflections on a Year-End Trip to France
Spending the holidays in Rennes in the Brittany region was a cultural eye-opener. Parties there often revolve around extended meals and conversations—sometimes the main dish is served at 2 a.m.!
From this experience, I reaffirmed that “When in Rome, do as the Romans do.” In FX trading, success often hinges on adapting to new approaches rather than clinging rigidly to one’s own methods.
Here’s to an outstanding 2025 of trading! Let’s stay flexible and enjoy fresh challenges. With the upcoming U.S. employment report, may we capture even more opportunities in the year ahead!
