Market Analysis and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 23, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: EUR/USD is trading around 1.0440, continuing its gradual upward trend.
Key Points:
- U.S. Federal Reserve Results:
- A 25-basis-point rate cut (to 4.50%) was announced, as expected by the market.
- The outlook for 2025 was revised downward to two rate cuts (previously three).
- U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index:
- Core PCE YoY: 2.8% (forecast: 2.9%); MoM: 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%).
- Headline PCE YoY: 2.4% (forecast: 2.5%).
- Eurozone Data:
- Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1%, improving from the previous month’s -1.1%.
GBP/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: GBP/USD is trading near 1.2580, showing an upward bias.
Key Points:
- UK GDP (Revised):
- Q3 growth rate: 0.0% (forecast: 0.1%).
- Annualized growth: 0.9% (forecast: 1.0%).
- UK Retail Sales:
- November YoY growth: 0.5% (forecast: 0.8%).
- Excluding fuel, monthly retail sales: 0.3% (forecast: 0.0%).
- U.S. Data:
- Weak U.S. PCE results provided support for the pound.
AUD/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: AUD/USD is trading near 0.6263, showing upward momentum.
Key Points:
- Factors Driving AUD Strength:
- Year-end profit-taking led to a reduction in short positions.
- Impact of U.S. Policy:
- Concerns over tariff policies under President-elect Trump are affecting market sentiment.
- Upcoming Focus:
- RBA meeting minutes to be released tomorrow (2:30 GMT+2).
- December policy rate was held steady at 4.35%.
USD/JPY – Strong Buy
Current Situation: USD/JPY is trading near 156.00, with slight upward movement.
Key Points:
- BOJ Policy:
- Policy rate held steady at 0.25%.
- BOJ Governor Kuroda stated that additional data is required for further policy changes.
- Japanese Economy:
- National CPI: 2.9% YoY (previous: 2.3%).
- Tokyo inflation data, retail sales, and industrial production figures are due this week.
XAU/USD (Gold) – Strong Sell
Current Situation: XAU/USD remains stable around 2625.00.
Key Points:
- U.S. Federal Reserve Results:
- The rate cut pace was reduced, with the 2025 outlook revised down to two rate cuts.
- U.S. Consumer Data:
- Core PCE fell below market expectations, providing some support for gold prices.
- Market Sentiment:
- Concerns over President-elect Trump’s policies have driven demand for safe-haven assets.
Summary
Short-Term Focus:
- RBA meeting minutes (December 10).
- Japan’s CPI and retail sales data.
Mid-to-Long-Term Impact:
- U.S.-China trade tensions and policies under President-elect Trump may significantly influence markets.
- Amid thin trading volumes during the year-end period, major economic indicators and policy announcements will continue to be key drivers for market movements.
