+97,245 USD: Bitcoin and USD/JPY Year-End Strategies! How to Navigate Low Liquidity?
Weekly Performance and Review
Period: December 16–20, 2024
Total Profit/Loss: +97,245 USD
- Bitcoin: Profited by adapting to highly volatile price movements.
- USD/JPY: Took advantage of post-FOMC dollar strength. However, closing positions before BOJ Governor Ueda’s press conference resulted in missed opportunities for additional profits.
Reflection:
Closed positions too early. A more assertive approach to capitalizing on profitable opportunities is necessary.
Outlook for the Future
As Christmas and the year-end approach, market liquidity is expected to decrease. Focus on cautious short-term trades while monitoring cryptocurrency movements, which tend to be unique during the year-end period.
Weekly Recap (Week of December 16, 2024)
USD/JPY
- Movement: Rose from 153.16 to 157.93 following the FOMC’s hawkish rate cut decision and BOJ’s decision to hold rates steady.
- Factors: The BOJ’s cautious stance and strong USD drove the movement.
EUR/USD
- Movement: Declined from 1.0534 to 1.0344, impacted by USD strength.
- Factors: Eurozone economic uncertainty and strong USD.
GBP/JPY
- Movement: Climbed near 199 yen after BOE policy announcement.
- Factors: Eased rate-cut expectations and yen weakness.
CAD/JPY
- Movement: Strengthened to the upper 109 yen range, but CAD weakened against USD.
- Factors: Concerns over US-Canada trade tensions and the BOC’s dovish stance.
AUD/JPY
- Movement: Weakened due to RBA dovishness and post-FOMC USD strength.
- Factors: China-related news and Australia’s dovish monetary policy.
ZAR/JPY
- Movement: Recovered to 8.70 yen due to buybacks.
- Factors: Impact of resource currencies and BOJ policy.
Currency Market Outlook for December 23, 2024
USD/JPY
- Direction: Bullish.
- Outlook: Further yen depreciation is possible, depending on BOJ Governor Ueda’s upcoming speech. However, caution is advised due to intervention risks and potential comments from President Trump.
EUR/USD
- Direction: Bearish.
- Outlook: Weighed down by Eurozone economic uncertainty and Trump’s tariff policies.
GBP/JPY
- Direction: Resilient.
- Outlook: Supported by BOE’s policy and accelerating U.K. inflation data.
CAD/JPY
- Direction: Weak.
- Outlook: Trade concerns between the U.S. and Canada continue to act as headwinds.
AUD/JPY
- Direction: Weak.
- Outlook: Monitor RBA meeting minutes and potential low liquidity-driven movements.
ZAR/JPY
- Direction: Range-bound.
- Outlook: Supported by Chinese economic measures but capped by rate-cut expectations.
Economic Events for the Week of December 23, 2024
- December 24 (Tuesday):
- Australia: RBA Meeting Minutes
- December 25 (Wednesday):
- Japan: BOJ Governor Ueda’s Speech
- U.S.: December Consumer Confidence Index
- December 26 (Thursday):
- U.S.: Holiday closure
- Australia: Holiday closure
- December 27 (Friday):
- Canada: October GDP
Key Takeaways
- USD: Dollar strength persists on U.S. and Japanese monetary policies, but beware of Trump’s comments.
- JPY: Yen volatility depends on BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks.
- Risk Currencies: Be cautious of sharp movements due to low liquidity.
Postscript
Overcoming Holiday Season Stress
The year-end holiday season is both a joyous and stressful time for many, with work deadlines, family gatherings, and gift preparations adding to the pressure. Here are some tips to regain a sense of calm:
- Prioritize “Me Time”
Taking a few minutes of quiet time daily can help calm the mind and body. Whether it’s deep breathing or a short walk, these small breaks can refresh you. - Practice Self-Care
Simple activities like listening to favorite music, soaking in a warm bath, or doing light yoga can significantly improve your mood. Find what works best for you. - Treat Yourself
Small rewards, such as enjoying your favorite meal or attending a community event, can boost happiness and reduce stress. - Express Gratitude
A simple “thank you” can strengthen relationships and reduce stress for both you and others. The holiday season is a perfect time to express appreciation to family and friends.
Incorporating Holidays into Trading
The year-end market often exhibits unique movements. Staying calm, managing stress, and approaching trading with a clear mind can lead to better outcomes.
With the year coming to a close, take care of yourself and prepare to welcome the new year with a refreshed outlook. Have a great weekend!
