Market Analysis and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 19, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: EUR/USD is actively rebounding, testing 1.0380 while correcting from the sharp decline of the previous day.
Key Points:
- FOMC Results:
- U.S. rate cut decision: 25 basis points (to 4.50%).
- 2025 monetary policy outlook reduced from three expected rate cuts to two.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not rule out additional rate hikes in 2025 but suggested a low probability.
- Eurozone Data:
- November CPI: 2.2% YoY (previous: 2.3%).
- Core CPI: Declined to 2.7% YoY (previous: 2.8%).
GBP/USD – Sell
Current Situation: GBP/USD is trading near 1.2590, recovering from the previous day’s decline.
Key Points:
- UK Data:
- November CPI accelerated to 2.6% YoY (previous: 2.3%).
- Core CPI rose to 3.5% YoY.
- BOE Meeting:
- Scheduled for today, with the policy rate expected to remain at 4.75%.
- The post-meeting statement is expected to draw market attention.
- Impact of FOMC Results:
- The U.S. rate cut briefly supported the pound, but the 2025 U.S. monetary policy outlook suggests further adjustments.
NZD/USD – Strong Sell
Current Situation: NZD/USD remains subdued around 0.5630, hovering near October 2022 lows.
Key Points:
- Impact of FOMC Results:
- The U.S. rate cut and resulting dollar strength are pressuring the New Zealand dollar.
- New Zealand Data:
- Q3 GDP contracted by -1.5% YoY, significantly below the forecast of -0.4%.
- RBNZ Business Optimism Index fell to 62.3 points (previous: 64.9 points).
USD/JPY – Strong Buy
Current Situation: USD/JPY has surpassed 155.45, developing a short-term bullish trend.
Key Points:
- BOJ Policy Rate:
- Held at 0.25%.
- The statement highlighted economic recovery trends while acknowledging stagnation in exports and production.
- Inflation risks keep expectations for a 2025 rate hike alive.
- Impact of FOMC Results:
- U.S. rate cuts and economic outlook are adding pressure on the yen.
XAU/USD (Gold) – Strong Sell
Current Situation: XAU/USD is attempting to test the 2600.00 level again, showing signs of recovery.
Key Points:
- Impact of FOMC Results:
- The rate cut decision and revised 2025 monetary policy outlook are supporting gold prices.
- BOE Meeting Results:
- Today’s announcement may influence gold prices.
Conclusions and Outlook
Short-Term Focus:
- BOE meeting results.
- Inflation indicators from various countries and monetary policy outlooks for 2025 and beyond.
Long-Term Impacts:
- Reduced U.S. tightening expectations could have significant effects on major currencies and gold prices.
Overall, markets are cautiously observing the U.S. policy shift, while the future actions of central banks remain a key focus.
