Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 9, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Sell
EUR/USD continues a gradual decline, currently testing 1.0535. Last week’s robust US employment data supported the dollar, while the euro remains under pressure.
- US Employment Data (November):
- NFP: +227,000 (forecast: +200,000, previous: +36,000).
- Average Hourly Earnings: +0.4% MoM (forecast: +0.3%), +4.0% YoY (forecast: +3.9%).
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.2%, previous: 4.1%).
- Eurozone GDP (Q3):
- +0.4% QoQ, +0.9% YoY (as expected).
- German Industrial Production:
- -4.5% YoY (below market expectations).
- Outlook:
- The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at Thursday’s meeting, with additional easing likely to be signaled.
GBP/USD – Strong Buy
GBP/USD is testing 1.2720, maintaining a bearish bias as the dollar benefits from US jobs data while UK economic indicators and dovish BoE comments weigh on the pound.
- UK GDP (September):
- -0.1% MoM (previous: -0.1%).
- BoE Governor’s Statement:
- Indicated potential rate cuts next year as inflation has peaked.
- Outlook:
- The upcoming US inflation data on December 13 continues to influence market expectations, keeping the pound under pressure.
AUD/USD – Buy
AUD/USD is trading weakly near 0.6380 as China’s inflation data negatively impacts the Australian dollar.
- China Inflation Data (November):
- CPI: +0.2% YoY (forecast: +0.5%).
- PPI: -2.5% YoY (forecast: -2.8%).
- Outlook:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold rates steady at tomorrow’s meeting. However, the statement’s tone could influence AUD volatility.
USD/JPY – Strong Buy
USD/JPY remains steady around 149.85. While Japan’s GDP slightly exceeded expectations, subdued inflation expectations reduce the likelihood of additional BOJ tightening.
- Japan GDP (Q3):
- +0.3% QoQ (forecast: +0.2%).
- +1.2% annualized (forecast: +0.9%).
- Outlook:
- The strong US employment data supports the dollar, with upcoming US CPI data likely to be the next major driver.
XAU/USD – Strong Buy
XAU/USD is attempting to recover after testing 2640.00, facing pressure amid rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- US Inflation Forecast (November):
- CPI: +2.7% YoY, +0.2% MoM.
- Core CPI: +3.3% YoY, +0.3% MoM.
- Outlook:
- The market sees an 87% probability of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, with inflation data likely to further influence expectations.
Key Events This Week
- December 12 (Tuesday):
- US Inflation Data (CPI, November).
- December 13 (Wednesday):
- ECB Policy Meeting.
- December 14 (Thursday):
- RBA Statement.
Summary
This week, the focus shifts to inflation data in the US, the ECB meeting, and the RBA statement. EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain influenced by respective central bank outlooks, while USD/JPY stays supported by strong US economic data. XAU/USD faces near-term pressure but remains sensitive to Fed expectations. Stay vigilant and manage risks amid evolving market dynamics.
