-23,565 USD: A Week Dominated by Bitcoin Volatility, ECB Rate Cuts, and Upcoming US CPI
Last Week’s Trading Recap
Bitcoin’s Surge and Collapse
- Expectations of $100,000 Breakthrough:
Entered aggressively after the $100,000 milestone, considering it a bullish signal. However, the sharp drop triggered stop-losses, resulting in substantial losses. - Recovery in the Second Half:
A rebound in Bitcoin later in the week helped reduce losses, with the total damage contained at -23,565 USD.
General Market Trends
- Forex: Risk-off sentiment driven by political turmoil in South Korea and France initially weighed on markets. However, USD/JPY rebounded to the 151 yen range by the end of the week.
Key Events This Week
US CPI (December 11)
- Market Expectation: Continued deceleration in CPI growth.
- Impact: Results will shape the outlook for a potential December rate cut by the FOMC.
ECB Meeting (December 12)
- Focus: Anticipation of a significant rate cut is putting pressure on the euro.
- Risk: Political instability in Europe (particularly France) may exacerbate euro selling.
Risk Currencies (AUD, CAD)
- Drivers: Trump tariffs and a broader risk-averse sentiment in the global economy.
Trading Strategies
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
- Strategy: Divide buy positions into smaller portions with tight stop-losses to manage volatility.
- Key Levels:
- Support: Lower $90,000s (recent lows).
- Resistance: $100,000 breakthrough towards the $110,000 level.
USD/JPY
- Strategy: Watch for movements around the 150 yen pivot.
- Key Insights:
- Below-market CPI → Dollar selling.
- Above-market CPI → Dollar buying.
EUR/USD
- Strategy: Focus on selling into rallies.
- Risk: A larger-than-expected ECB rate cut could trigger a sharp decline.
Risk Currencies (AUD, CAD)
- AUD: Keep an eye on RBA Governor Lowe’s statements and employment data.
- CAD: Monitor the size of BOC’s expected rate cut.
Key Economic Events
December 11 (Monday)
- US CPI, South African CPI
December 12 (Tuesday)
- ECB Meeting, Australian Employment Data
December 13 (Wednesday)
- RBA Deputy Governor Speech, South African Inflation Outlook
Closing Thoughts: The Future of Bitcoin
Last week, Bitcoin reached a milestone by surpassing $100,000, only to shock the market with a rapid collapse. While the short-term volatility is undeniable, Bitcoin’s growing role as the foundation of the “new era of digital assets” strengthens its long-term appeal.
Traders should not only focus on Bitcoin but also explore other cryptocurrencies and digital assets to diversify portfolios and prepare for the next big wave.
Enjoy the market’s movements this week, and trade wisely and calmly!
