Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – December 4, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Sell
EUR/USD is showing slight upward movement, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. It is currently testing the 1.0510 level as market participants await fresh catalysts. Key focus today includes the release of November Services PMI data for both the Eurozone and the US.
- Eurozone Services PMI (S&P Global): Expected at 49.2 points.
- US Services PMI (S&P Global): Expected at 57.0 points.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Forecast to decline from 56.0 points to 55.5 points.
Additionally, at 12:00 (GMT+2), the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for October will be released, with expectations for a monthly rise of +0.4% and an annual improvement from -3.4% to -3.3%. Speeches by ECB President Lagarde (17:30) and Bundesbank President Nagel (19:10) are also scheduled, with potential discussions on monetary easing to address regional economic challenges.
In France, potential political turmoil adds pressure on the euro as Prime Minister Barnier faces a no-confidence vote on budget and tax proposals.
GBP/USD – Strong Sell
GBP/USD is trading near 1.2695, supported by weak bullish momentum formed yesterday as it attempts to recover early-week losses. However, buyer support remains limited.
- UK Retail Sales (BRC): November saw a year-on-year decline of -3.4% (previous: +0.3%).
- UK Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global/CIPS): Declined from 48.6 points to 48.0 points in November.
At 11:30 (GMT+2), the UK November Services PMI is set to be released, with an expected reading of 50.0 points. Additionally, BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak at 11:00 (GMT+2), possibly addressing further rate cuts.
Later, at 15:15 (GMT+2), the US ADP employment report is expected, forecasting a decline in November job gains from 233,000 to 150,000. At 20:45 (GMT+2), Fed Chair Powell is set to speak, potentially influencing expectations for a December rate cut.
AUD/USD – Strong Sell
AUD/USD continues its bearish momentum from earlier this week, trading near 0.6436 and hitting its lowest level since August 5.
- Australian GDP (Q3): Growth slowed from 1.0% to 0.8% year-on-year (expected: 1.1%).
- Services PMI (Commonwealth Bank): Improved from 49.6 points to 50.5 points in November.
- China November Caixin Services PMI: Declined from 52.0 points to 51.5 points, below the forecast of 52.5 points.
Key events today include the US ADP employment report and ISM Services PMI. On Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show an increase from 12,000 to 200,000.
USD/JPY – Strong Sell
USD/JPY is attempting to recover from its lowest level since October 11, currently striving to break above the 150.00 level.
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (Jibun Bank): Rose from 50.2 points to 50.5 points in November.
Key US data to watch includes the ADP employment report (15:15 GMT+2) and the Beige Book (21:00 GMT+2), which will provide insights ahead of the December FOMC meeting.
XAU/USD – Strong Sell
XAU/USD is showing slight upward movement, testing the 2650.00 level, as the market remains flat and awaits new drivers.
Key events today include the ADP employment report (15:15), ISM Services PMI (17:00), and the Beige Book (21:00). On Friday, US NFP, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rate data are expected, which could influence gold prices.
Additionally, geopolitical risks in Syria are supporting demand for gold as a “safe-haven” asset. Reports suggest the “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” group has launched large-scale attacks and seized control of several cities.
