Key Currencies and Technical Analysis (4-hour Chart) – December 2, 2024
EUR/USD – Sell EUR/USD is showing a downtrend, continuing the adjustment after last week’s “bullish” trend. Currently, it is testing the 1.0531 level, and investors are focusing on today’s manufacturing PMI statistics from both the US and the Eurozone.
Forecast:
- Germany and Eurozone S&P Manufacturing PMI: 43.2 and 45.2, respectively, expected to remain unchanged.
- US S&P Manufacturing PMI: Expected to remain unchanged at 48.8.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expected to increase from 46.5 to 47.5.
Key Points:
- 12:00 (GMT+2): Eurozone October Unemployment Rate (currently 6.3%).
- ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech: Focus on the details of the monetary easing plan.
- Last Friday, Eurozone November inflation statistics were released as expected: CPI rose from 2.0% to 2.3% year-over-year, and Core CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.8%.
- The US employment data will be released later this week, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) expected to increase from 12,000 to 183,000.
GBP/USD – Strong Buy GBP/USD continues its downtrend and is currently testing 1.2690. Today’s focus is on UK and US S&P manufacturing PMI statistics.
Forecast:
- UK S&P Manufacturing PMI: Expected to remain unchanged at 48.6.
- US S&P Manufacturing PMI: Expected to remain unchanged at 48.8.
Key Data:
- 09:00 (GMT+2): UK Nationwide Housing Price Index for November.
- Last Friday, the Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes and Financial Stability Report were released, showing cautious language. The BoE mentioned risks from the worsening trade outlook and potential tariff increases under Trump but emphasized the stability of the UK financial sector.
AUD/USD – Strong Sell The Australian Dollar is showing a slight downtrend and is testing the 0.6500 level.
Key Data:
- TD Securities Inflation Indicator (November): Slows from 3.0% to 2.9% year-over-year.
- Retail Sales (October): Increased by 0.6% MoM (forecast: 0.3%).
- China’s Manufacturing PMI (Caixin) increased from 50.3 to 51.5 points in November, providing slight support for the Australian Dollar.
USD/JPY – Strong Sell USD/JPY is recovering from last week’s sharp decline and is showing signs of breaking above the 150.65 level.
Key Points:
- US Employment Data: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to rise by 183,000 in November, with average hourly earnings expected to slow to 0.3% MoM.
- In Japan, Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen to 2.6%, increasing the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the BoJ in the December meeting.
XAU/USD – Buy Gold prices are trading below the 2620.00 level. Market activity has picked up with the US market reopening after Thanksgiving.
Key Data:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expected to rise from 46.5 to 47.5.
- ADP Employment Report (a leading indicator for US employment data) is scheduled for release on Wednesday (forecast: 165,000).
Gold prices may see significant movement depending on this week’s data.
Market Outlook for This Week: The market will be focused on the release of several major economic indicators and potential policy decisions, with high volatility expected.
