Focus Currencies and Technical Analysis (4-hour Chart) – November 29, 2024
EUR/USD: Buy
EUR/USD is showing a mild upward trend, developing the uncertain “bullish” momentum formed earlier this week. It is currently testing the 1.0570 breakout. Investors are focusing on the Eurozone’s November inflation data scheduled for release today. The forecasts are as follows:
- Core CPI: Expected to increase from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, with a 0.2% increase MoM.
- Headline CPI: Expected to rise from 2.0% to 2.3% YoY.
Additionally, according to Germany’s October retail sales data:
- YoY: Expected to increase from 0.9% to 1.0%.
- MoM: Expected to decrease by 1.5% (forecasted to increase by 0.3%).
In addition, the German inflation statistics released the previous day showed a Harmonized CPI of 2.4% YoY (forecasted 2.6%) while the broader CPI increased by 2.2% YoY (forecasted 2.3%).
GBP/USD: Buy
GBP/USD continues its short-term “bullish” trend, updating the local highs from November 14. With the US market closed for Thanksgiving, the pound has partially recovered the positions it had lost.
The focus is on the potential for further monetary easing from the Bank of England (BoE), with key data as follows:
- Manufacturing PMI: Expected to decrease from 49.9 to 48.6 (neutral forecast).
- Services PMI: Expected to decrease from 52.0 to 50.0 (forecasted 52.1).
Today’s key events include:
- BoE’s Financial Stability Report and November meeting minutes.
- Consumer credit data (October): Expected to increase from £3.8 billion to £4.1 billion.
AUD/USD: Strong Sell
AUD/USD is showing active upward movement, testing the 0.6520 level. Australia’s data shows:
- Private sector credit (October): 6.1% YoY (previous month 5.8%), 0.6% MoM (previous month 0.5%).
US data confirmed Q3 GDP growth at 2.8%, and durable goods orders increased by 0.2% in October, but the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, drawing attention to its impact on monetary policy.
USD/JPY: Strong Sell
USD/JPY has updated the lowest levels since October 21 and is testing around 151.40. The Tokyo CPI (November) is as follows:
- CPI excluding fresh food: 2.2% YoY (forecasted 2.1%).
- Industrial production: Expected to rise by 3.0% MoM (forecasted 3.9%).
- Retail sales: Expected to increase by 1.6% MoM (forecasted 2.2%).
These data points are increasing expectations for further tightening by the Bank of Japan.
XAU/USD: Strong Buy
XAU/USD is rebounding around 2660.00. Gold continues to be supported by the decreased market activity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday and expectations of future Fed easing. However, comments related to the new President Trump’s plan to increase import tariffs pushed prices lower earlier this week.
In the US, Q3 GDP growth was confirmed at 2.8%, with durable goods orders and personal income data catching the market’s attention.
Overall, with the recovery of market liquidity after Thanksgiving, major currency pairs will continue to focus on US data and inflation expectations.
