Key Currency Pairs and Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart) – November 28, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Buy EUR/USD showed a sharp rise the previous day and is now testing the 1.0555 level as it undergoes a correction. Investors are focusing on the EU’s November macroeconomic data to be released today.
- Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI): A 2.0% to 2.2% YoY increase is expected, but a decline from +0.4% to -0.2% is forecasted on a monthly basis.
- Harmonized CPI (HICP): A YoY increase of 2.6% (previous 2.4%) and a monthly decrease of -0.5% (previous 0.4%) are anticipated. Additionally, the Eurozone Economic Business Sentiment data will be released at 12:00 (GMT+2), with the following forecasts:
- Consumer Confidence Index: A decline from -12.4 to -13.7.
- Economic Sentiment Indicator: A decline from 95.6 to 95.1.
- Industrial Confidence Index: A decline from -13.0 to -13.2. Yesterday, in the US, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for October rose from 2.7% to 2.8%, raising concerns about increased inflation risks.
GBP/USD – Buy GBP/USD is maintaining a high near 1.2660, the highest since November 20, but technical factors are showing signs of correction. With US data influencing the pair, key points for the UK include:
- Bank of England (BoE) Minutes: Scheduled for tomorrow at 12:30 (GMT+2).
- October Consumer Credit Data: The market expects signals of further monetary easing in response to weaker inflation and a deteriorating economic outlook.
NZD/USD – Strong Sell NZD/USD has extended the “bullish momentum” from yesterday and is testing the 0.5900 level.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% but pointed to a trend of easing inflation risks.
- Business Confidence Index: 64.9 points for November (previous 65.7).
- Activity Outlook Index: 48.0% (previous 45.9%).
USD/JPY – Sell USD/JPY has recovered from the sharp drop the previous day and is now testing the 151.40 level. Inflation data from Tokyo and Japan’s retail sales could influence the market. The forecasts are as follows:
- CPI (excluding food): Expected to rise from 1.8% to 2.1%.
- Retail Sales: Expected to increase from 0.5% to 2.2%.
- Industrial Production: Expected to see significant growth from 1.6% to 3.9%.
XAU/USD – Buy XAU/USD is trading around 2630.00 and shows an uncertain downward trend. Market activity is subdued as the US market is closed for Thanksgiving. Noteworthy points from yesterday’s data:
- Durable Goods Orders (excluding transportation): A decrease from 0.4% to 0.1%.
- Personal Income: Accelerated from 0.3% to 0.6%.
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): Increased from 2.7% to 2.8%. These data could support a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December, though market expectations are mixed.
The overall market is seeing reduced liquidity due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and cautious movements are observed across all currency pairs.
