Technical Analysis and Key Currency Focus (4-hour chart) – November 26, 2024
EUR/USD: Consolidating around 1.0500
The EUR/USD pair has shown uncertain movement during the Asian session, hovering around the 1.0500 level. A bearish move was observed earlier this morning, but the pair has since recovered, returning to its opening levels. The market is focusing on the upcoming U.S. Housing Price Index (S&P/Case-Shiller), new home sales, and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.
Key Data:
- U.S. Housing Price Index (September): Expected to slow to 4.9% from 5.2% YoY.
- New Home Sales (October): Expected decrease from 0.738M to 0.730M.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (21:00 GMT+2): Insight into the Fed’s stance on further rate cuts in December.
Market Context:
- Weak economic data from the Eurozone:
- Germany’s Services PMI: 51.6 → 49.4 (Forecast: 51.7).
- France’s Services PMI: 49.2 → 45.7 (Forecast: 49.0).
- Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index: 86.5 → 85.7 (Forecast: 86.0).
GBP/USD: Bearish Pressure at 1.2550
The GBP/USD pair is showing bearish momentum, testing the 1.2550 level. Pressure on the pound is mounting due to weaker retail sales figures in the UK.
Key Data:
- UK Retail Sales (BRC, November): -0.6% (previous: -0.8%).
- UK PMI (November):
- Services PMI: 52.0 → 50.0 (Forecast: 52.1).
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 → 48.6 (Forecast: 49.9).
Focus Ahead:
- U.S. GDP (Q3): Expected to hold at 2.8% (Due tomorrow, 15:30 GMT+2).
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): Expected to rise to 2.3% YoY (previous: 2.1%).
AUD/USD: Consolidating Below 0.6500
The AUD/USD pair is experiencing indecisive movement near the 0.6500 level. The PMI data released last week for both Australia and the U.S. had a negative impact on the Australian dollar.
Key Data:
- Australia PMI (November):
- Services: 51.0 → 49.6.
- Composite: 50.2 → 48.4.
- Manufacturing: 47.3 → 49.4.
- U.S. PMI (November):
- Services: 55.0 → 57.0 (Forecast: 55.3).
- Manufacturing: 48.5 → 48.8 (In line with expectations).
Focus Ahead:
- RBA Governor’s Speech (November 28).
USD/JPY: Bearish Pressure at 153.70
The USD/JPY pair is showing a bearish trend around 153.70, with continued downward pressure in the short term.
Key Data:
- U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (21:00 GMT+2): Focus on potential rate cuts.
- Japan Key Indicators (November 25 Expected):
- Tokyo CPI (Excluding fresh food): Expected to rise from 1.8% to 2.1%.
- Retail Sales (October): Expected to rise from 0.5% to 0.7%.
- Industrial Production: Expected to rise from 1.6% to 3.9%.
XAU/USD (Gold): Potential for New Lows at 2625.00
Gold prices are consolidating near the 2625.00 level, but Monday’s sharp decline has erased the gains from last week.
Key Data:
- U.S. PCE Price Index: Expected at 2.3% YoY.
- U.S. GDP (Q3): Expected to remain at 2.8%.
Market Context:
- New U.S. Tariffs: Indications of additional tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China.
- Middle East Ceasefire Expectations: Reduced geopolitical risk may lessen the appeal of gold.
Overall, major currency pairs are responding sensitively to upcoming economic data and central bank developments.
