U.S. Presidential Election Takes Place Today, Market in Wait-and-See Mood
Today, the U.S. presidential election is finally taking place. Whether it will be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the counting results are expected to be reported starting tomorrow morning Japan time, with the victories and losses of each state becoming clear throughout the morning and into the afternoon. However, it may take several days for the results in the battleground states to be determined, and the market needs to respond cautiously.
This week, reflecting the nearly equal support ratings for both candidates, a rollback of dollar-buying positions has been observed, and we are currently in a phase of waiting for the results. In the Tokyo market, Chinese stocks and the Nikkei index are performing well, leading to a stronger yen, while the dollar-yen exchange rate is capped in the upper 152 yen range. The euro-dollar and pound-dollar pairs are also continuing a sideways trend with little directional movement.
Key Economic Indicators and Events
The main economic indicators to be released in the overseas market today are as follows:
- Swiss Employment Statistics (October)
- France’s Industrial Production Index (September) and Fiscal Balance (September)
- UK Services PMI (October) and Canada’s International Merchandise Trade (September)
- U.S. Trade Balance (September), U.S. Services PMI (October), and U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (October)
These indicators will be particularly important for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy as they reflect trends in the services sector and consumer behavior.
In addition, speeches from ECB officials, the release of the Bank of Canada’s minutes, and earnings reports from U.S. companies such as Yum Brands and DuPont are also scheduled, which may provide additional insights.
Considering a Dollar-Selling Strategy
If Kamala Harris wins, dollar selling is expected. Even if Donald Trump wins, considering the likelihood of dollar selling due to a “sell the fact” reaction, dollar selling appears to have both higher probability and potential returns. Since fluctuations are expected based on the election results, I plan to carefully identify entry points while aiming for dollar selling.
