USD/JPY: Buy – Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 23, 2024
EUR/USD: Sell – Attempting to Break 1.0800, ECB’s Monetary Easing as a Weight
The EUR/USD is attempting to break above 1.0800, but expectations for further monetary easing from the ECB continue to weigh on it. During the IMF and World Bank meetings, ECB President Lagarde stated that while the direction of interest rates is set, the pace will depend on past macroeconomic data. A 25 basis point rate cut was implemented in October, with inflation expected to stabilize at the target of 2.0% by 2025. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in November, with attention turning to decisions after the presidential election in December. In the U.S., September existing home sales are expected to increase from 3.86M to 3.90M.
GBP/USD: Strong Sell – Attempting to Recover 1.2990, Influenced by Expectations of BoE Easing
The GBP/USD is trying to recover around 1.2990, aiming to rebound from declines at the beginning of the week. The UK’s inflation rate has sharply decreased from 2.2% to 1.7%, with core CPI dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, strengthening expectations for monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE). However, the UK’s economic growth is said to be better than that of the Eurozone. On Thursday, the manufacturing PMI (51.4) and services PMI (52.2) will be announced. The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could impact the U.S. dollar, with attention also focused on the direction of Fed policy.
AUD/USD: Sell – Mixed Movements Around 0.6678, Focus on IMF Meeting
The AUD/USD is showing mixed movements around 0.6678. The market is waiting for policy announcements from the IMF and World Bank meetings. While the U.S. Redbook Retail Sales Index slowed, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index showed better-than-expected improvement. In Australia, the business conditions index for October is scheduled for release tomorrow, alongside upcoming U.S. unemployment claims and new home sales data.
USD/JPY: Buy – Testing 152.20 Highs, Focus on Election Results
The USD/JPY is attempting to test the 152.20 level, updating its highs since July. Improved figures from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index have boosted dollar buying, but the results of the U.S. presidential election may influence the Fed’s pace of monetary easing. If Trump wins, changes to tariff policies are expected, which could affect the outlook for monetary policy. Tomorrow, Japan’s business conditions index will be announced, followed by the Tokyo CPI release on Friday.
XAU/USD: Strong Buy – New Highs at 2753.00, Supported by Monetary Easing and Geopolitical Risks
Gold prices have reached a new all-time high at 2753.00. Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, along with monetary easing by major central banks, are supporting gold prices. Last week, both the ECB and the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates, and the Bank of Canada is also expected to lower rates by 50 basis points. The Fed’s outlook for a rate cut in November is around 85.0%, with the results of the presidential election potentially influencing further monetary policy direction.
