US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Sell: Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 10, 2024
Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) Sell
The EUR/USD pair is showing mixed movements around 1.0940, trading near its lowest point since August 13th. Market activity is subdued as traders await the US inflation statistics for September. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain unchanged year-on-year at 3.2% and slightly decelerate from 0.3% to 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, the overall CPI is projected to decrease from 2.5% to 2.3% year-on-year and from 0.2% to 0.1% month-on-month. Additionally, new jobless claims are expected to rise from 225,000 to 230,000.
Traders are referencing the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting released the previous day. During this meeting, rates were cut by 50 basis points, but officials warned against rushing to conclusions about rapid monetary easing signaling a deteriorating economic outlook. Today at 13:30 (GMT+2), the minutes from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting will be released. The ECB kept its monetary policy unchanged in September, but additional easing is expected amid worsening economic indicators. Notably, Germany has revised its GDP growth forecast down from +0.3% to -0.2%, projecting growth of 1.1% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Additionally, German retail sales improved from -1.2% to +1.6% month-on-month and from -1.6% to +2.1% year-on-year.
British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD) Strong Sell
The GBP/USD pair is showing slight movements around 1.3075, near its lowest point since September 12th. Investors are primarily focused on US data. The FOMC minutes released the previous day indicated that Chair Powell opposes rapid monetary easing, and there is a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the November meeting. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2), the US CPI for September will be released, with expectations for a slowdown from 2.5% to 2.3% year-on-year and from 0.2% to 0.1% month-on-month. Meanwhile, the upcoming inflation report in the UK could influence future monetary policy. The pound is receiving some support from a 1.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales reported by the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar (NZD/USD) Buy
The NZD/USD pair has quickly recovered from a sharp decline and is currently trading around 0.6090. Investors are focusing on the US inflation statistics to be released today. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates by 50 basis points as expected, bringing them to 4.75%. The RBNZ noted that the pace of future rate cuts will depend on economic conditions, particularly inflation. The New Zealand Manufacturing Activity Index for September, due to be released tomorrow, is expected to show little change from the previous 45.8 points.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Sell
The USD/JPY pair is trading sideways around 149.20, near its highest level since August 2nd. Market activity is subdued as traders await the release of US inflation statistics for September. Expectations are for the CPI to slow from 2.5% year-on-year to 2.3% and from 0.2% month-on-month to 0.1%. On the other hand, Japan’s economic indicators show that the domestic corporate price index accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8% year-on-year, indicating increased inflation risks.
Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD) Sell
Gold is attempting to recover from the low on September 20th, showing a slight increase around 2620.00. The market is reevaluating the Fed’s future monetary policy outlook, with Chair Powell expressing caution against rapid rate cuts. The US inflation statistics released today may also influence market expectations. Additionally, the lack of concrete economic stimulus measures announced by China’s National Development and Reform Commission is adding pressure to gold prices.
