US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Buy: Focus Currency and Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) October 9, 2024
Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) Neutral
The EUR/USD pair is showing a gradual decline after attempting a corrective rise at the beginning of the week. It is currently testing the 1.0960 level, approaching the low from August 15th once again. Macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone are not providing significant support. Germany’s industrial production for August increased by 2.9% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 0.8%, but fell by 2.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, France’s trade balance has widened into a deficit, raising concerns among investors.
Conversely, US economic indicators are supporting the dollar. The October IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose from 46.1 to 46.9 points. Today, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are set to be released, potentially shedding light on views regarding further reductions in borrowing costs.
British Pound/US Dollar (GBP/USD) Strong Sell
The GBP/USD pair is in a downward trend, again attempting to break down through the 1.3080 level. Market activity is subdued, with investors awaiting new developments. The upcoming release of the Fed meeting minutes today and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tomorrow are closely watched. Fed Chair Powell has expressed caution against rapid rate cuts, and the market anticipates a 90% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut at the November meeting. In the UK, however, retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year, providing some support for the pound.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUD/USD) Strong Sell
The AUD/USD pair is showing a notable corrective rise, rebounding from the September 16th low. It is currently attempting to break out above 0.6750. Investors are focused on the release of the Fed meeting minutes today. With the strengthening of the US dollar pausing, the Aussie is receiving some support. Additionally, Australian economic indicators are favorable, with the NAB Business Confidence Index improving from -5.0 to -2.0, and the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rising significantly by 6.2% month-on-month.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Buy
The USD/JPY pair is showing a slight increase and attempting to break out above 148.50. Investors are paying attention to the Fed minutes scheduled for release at 20:00 (GMT+2) today. Chair Powell opposes rapid rate cuts and supports a gradual adjustment of 25 basis points. While US economic indicators are cautiously optimistic, Japanese economic indicators are underperforming, with total cash earnings falling short of expectations and the Eco Watchers Survey showing deterioration.
Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD) Strong Sell
The XAU/USD pair is stable around 2620.00. The market is waiting for the Fed minutes, focusing on prospects for further monetary easing. Chair Powell has expressed caution regarding rapid 50 basis point rate cuts. The market expects a 87.0% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the November meeting. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing demand for gold as a safe haven asset.
