-15,863 USD Loss: How to Navigate Market Waves Before and After the US CPI Release? Outlook on Dollar Selling and Crude Oil
This week’s trading resulted in a total loss of -15,863 USD. I was trading with a perspective of selling dollars and buying yen, but the market moved in the opposite direction, ending in a negative result. Notably, Prime Minister Ishiba’s negative stance on additional rate hikes reignited the yen-selling trend, which had a significant impact.
Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s cautious stance on significant rate cuts led to continued dollar buying. With market uncertainty due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, I focused on buying crude oil during risk-off scenarios, but the result was a slight profit.
Future Strategy
Moving forward, I will pay particular attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 10th and plan to respond flexibly by buying or selling depending on the results. Additionally, due to the instability in the Middle East, I will continue to maintain a bullish outlook on crude oil.
Points to Watch
1. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI to be released on the 10th is a crucial indicator that influences the direction of U.S. monetary policy. The core index is expected to remain flat; if the results align with expectations, the impact on USD/JPY is considered limited. However, any deviation could lead to significant market movements, so caution is necessary. Unstable movements are expected to continue until the November FOMC meeting.
2. Crude Oil Market
Crude oil prices have surged over 5% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the risk of attacks on oil facilities are major market concerns. I plan to continue a bullish stance on crude oil.
Outlook for Each Currency
- U.S. Dollar (USD): Neutral
The dollar’s trend depends on the CPI results, so a neutral stance is appropriate. - Japanese Yen (JPY): Sell
Yen selling is likely to continue due to Prime Minister Ishiba’s negative remarks on additional rate hikes. - Euro (EUR): Sell
Expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) are increasing, pointing towards selling the euro. - Australian Dollar (AUD): Neutral
Neutral due to susceptibility to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy and the impact of the U.S. CPI. - South African Rand (ZAR): Sell
Economic concerns suggest a heavy upside, indicating a selling outlook. - British Pound (GBP): Sell
Continued selling of the pound due to dovish remarks by the Bank of England Governor. - Canadian Dollar (CAD): Sell
Selling is anticipated due to the possibility of increased expectations for significant rate cuts depending on employment statistics.
Amid increasing market volatility, I will respond flexibly while thoroughly managing risks.
Afterword
Thank you all for reading this week’s FX Trading Weekly Report. This time, although it’s not directly related to trading, I want to talk about “global warming” and the accompanying risks of “heatstroke” and “heat exhaustion,” which significantly affect our health.
October 2024 has recorded abnormally high temperatures worldwide, and this “October heatwave” is greatly impacting our daily lives. Usually, during the time when it gets cooler in autumn, the sudden continuation of high temperatures increases the burden on our bodies, particularly raising the risks of heatstroke and heat exhaustion.
As global warming progresses, such abnormal weather is expected to occur more frequently. The increase in atmospheric heat makes it difficult to regulate body temperature, so caution is needed during outdoor and daily activities. Especially when focusing on trading for long periods in front of the screen, it’s easy to forget to hydrate, so taking frequent breaks and hydrating is essential.
Prevention Measures for Heatstroke and Heat Exhaustion
- Proper Hydration: It’s important to drink water frequently before feeling thirsty. Be cautious with beverages containing caffeine, as they can lead to dehydration.
- Ensure a Cool Environment: Even indoors, if the temperature is high, use air conditioners and fans to prevent excessive body temperature rise. When going out, avoid direct sunlight and protect yourself using hats or umbrellas.
- Moderate Rest: To maintain health without overstraining your body due to intense trading focus, it’s crucial to take regular breaks and relax.
Conclusion
As global warming advances and hot days increase, the importance of health management grows. Especially when engaging in concentration-intensive activities like trading, be sure not to neglect your health. By taking appropriate measures, you can spend comfortable days even during intense heat and deliver peak performance.
Let’s continue to aim for trading success while paying attention to our health.
