EUR/USD (Euro Dollar) – Strong Buy – Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart) September 30, 2024
EUR/USD – Strong Buy
The EUR/USD pair is maintaining the “bullish” momentum established the previous day, showing mixed trading around 1.1160. Market activity is subdued as we await the release of Germany’s inflation data for September. It is expected that the adjusted HICP (Harmonized Consumer Price Index) will slow from 2.0% to 1.9%, which could provide additional support for the European Central Bank (ECB) to pursue further monetary easing. In the U.S., September’s employment statistics will be released this Friday, which will help gauge the Federal Reserve’s (FRB) potential interest rate cuts for the year. The market anticipates that the number of employed persons will rise from 142,000 to 145,000, while average hourly earnings are expected to slow from 3.8% year-on-year to 3.3% and from 0.4% month-on-month to 0.3%. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2%.
GBP/USD – Sell
The GBP/USD pair is maintaining an upward trend while testing the breakout of 1.3390. The market is focused on the UK’s second-quarter GDP growth rate, which is expected to slow from 0.6% to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and from 0.9% to 0.7% year-on-year. This weak GDP growth could pressure the Bank of England to consider further monetary easing. In the U.S., the recently released Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a decline from 2.5% to 2.2% year-on-year and from 0.2% to 0.1% month-on-month, increasing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
AUD/USD – Sell
The AUD/USD pair is maintaining a vigorous upward trend in the short term and is attempting to break record highs. Currently, it is trying to break through 0.6930, which is the highest level since February 2023. However, the current macroeconomic backdrop is not supportive for the Australian dollar. In Australia, private sector credit for August came in as expected, while China’s services PMI has decreased to 50.0 points. On the other hand, expectations for further monetary easing in the U.S. are supporting the Australian dollar.
USD/JPY – Buy
The USD/JPY pair is showing a slight decline while maintaining a short-term “bearish” trend. It is currently attempting to break through 141.70 as investors evaluate Japan’s macroeconomic indicators. August’s industrial production significantly fell below expectations, recording a sharp year-on-year decline of 4.9%. In contrast, retail sales exceeded expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8%.
