Current Trends With the rise of the US dollar, the AUD/USD pair is undergoing a downward correction at 0.6698.
June’s labor market data for Australia showed little change and was insufficient to support the Australian dollar. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate changed from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the participation rate increased from 66.8% to 66.9%. Employment increased by 50.2K to 14.406 million people, with full-time employment up by 43.3K and part-time employment up by 6.8K, raising the employment-to-population ratio to 64.2%. The number of unemployed people increased from 598.5K to 608.2K, showing a monthly increase of 1.6% and a yearly increase of 18.7%, reflecting ongoing sectoral issues. However, this situation is too strong for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to move towards monetary easing, making a rate cut this year unlikely.
The US dollar is trading at 104.00 on the USDX. Despite sufficient macroeconomic statistics, investors focused on the speech by Donald Trump, the US Republican presidential candidate. Trump stated that he would stop the inflation crisis and the sharp rise in oil prices by cutting interest rates and increasing oil production. This politician made similar statements yesterday, and at least his words align with the opinions of the majority of experts, giving investors hope for rapid changes in the US economy.
Support and Resistance On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is falling from the resistance line of an expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6800–0.6300.
Technical indicators are dulling buy signals. The Alligator indicator’s fast EMA is approaching the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is decreasing in the buy zone.
- Resistance Levels: 0.6720, 0.6800
- Support Levels: 0.6680, 0.6600
Trading Plan
- Short Positions: Open positions targeting 0.6600 if the price falls below 0.6680. Set a stop loss at 0.6730.
- Long Positions: Open positions targeting 0.6800 if the price rises above 0.6720. Set a stop loss at 0.6660.
