EUR/USD – Sell
The EUR/USD pair shows weak growth, continuing the correction trend from the previous day. It is currently attempting to break out at 1.0740, but the macroeconomic backdrop remains negative. Last Friday, the Eurozone’s June Manufacturing PMI decreased from 52.2 points to 50.8 points, and the Services PMI also fell from 53.2 points to 52.6 points. Additionally, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index for June dropped from 89.3 points to 88.6 points, and the Economic Expectations Index declined from 90.4 points to 89.0 points. Today, Spain’s Q1 GDP increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and accelerated by 2.5% year-on-year. In the US, housing price data and consumer confidence figures are expected to be released.
GBP/USD – Sell
The GBP/USD pair is trading in an upward trend, attempting to break out at 1.2700. This movement is mainly driven by technical factors, while the macroeconomic backdrop is mixed. Last week, the UK’s May retail sales increased by 2.9% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, providing support for the pound. However, US business activity data exceeded expectations, contributing to the strengthening of the US dollar. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee report is scheduled for release.
AUD/USD – Sell
The AUD/USD pair shows weak growth, continuing the “bullish” momentum from the previous day. It is currently attempting to break out at 0.6660. Macroeconomic data from Australia provides support, with the consumer confidence index increasing by 1.7% in June. However, business activity data fell short of expectations, with the Manufacturing PMI declining from 49.7 points to 47.5 points, and the Services PMI decreasing from 52.5 points to 51.0 points. In the US, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 points to 51.7 points, and the Services PMI increased from 54.8 points to 55.1 points.
USD/JPY – Strong Sell
The USD/JPY pair shows a corrective decline, retreating from the highs updated on April 29. It is currently attempting to break out at 159.40, awaiting new drivers. On Friday, the US Federal Reserve’s key inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), is expected to be released, with further easing of inflation risks anticipated. On the same day, Japan’s June Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), May industrial production, and unemployment rate data are scheduled for release.
XAU/USD (Gold/USD) – Strong Buy
The XAU/USD pair shows a correction after attempting growth the previous day, retreating from the local low of June 18. It is currently attempting to break out at 2330.00, awaiting new drivers. Today’s investor focus will be on the April statistics of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, expected to decrease from 0.1% to 0.3% month-on-month and from 7.4% to 6.9% year-on-year. Additionally, the consumer confidence index and speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve are in the spotlight. On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is set to be released, providing the latest indicator of the Fed’s assessment of inflationary pressures.
