Forex Top Team

Focus on U.S. Employment Report: Key Points to Watch – Employment Numbers, Unemployment Rate, and Wages

Today, the highly anticipated U.S. employment report for May will be released, providing a crucial indicator for the direction of the dollar. The non-farm payrolls (NFP) are the most closely watched metric, with market consensus expecting an increase of 180,000 jobs compared to the previous month’s 175,000 increase. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings, a key indicator for inflation trends, are forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, up from the previous 0.2%, and 3.9% year-over-year, matching the prior rate.

If all three metrics point in the same direction, significant reactions in the dollar market can be anticipated. However, after the initial response from U.S. bond yields and the dollar, the market often shifts focus to risk sentiment based on stock market reactions, potentially leading to a yen-driven scenario. Given that the employment report is always released at the end of the week, the late New York session often sees adjustment movements, making it challenging to establish a consistent trend.

In addition to the U.S. employment report, today’s overseas economic indicators include the Canadian employment report for May, Canada’s capacity utilization rate for Q1 2024, and the U.S. wholesale inventories final figure for April.

Regarding speaking events, several ECB officials are scheduled to speak, including Bundesbank President Nagel, Lithuanian Central Bank Governor Šimkus, ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel, Austrian Central Bank Governor Holzmann, Portuguese Central Bank Governor Centeno, and ECB President Lagarde. Additional explanations regarding yesterday’s ECB rate cut and future outlooks are expected. Holzmann was reportedly the only one opposing the rate cut, and the reasons for his stance might be clarified.


The plan is to follow the flow of the U.S. dollar after the release of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate at 21:30. Given that the Canadian employment report will also be released at the same time following the recent rate cut, the Canadian dollar will also be closely monitored.

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