As the market opens for the week, attention will be on a series of economic indicators. In Europe, the final manufacturing PMI figures for May will be released for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK. This Thursday, the ECB Governing Council will announce its monetary policy, with a consensus among the market and financial authorities for a rate cut to begin in June. Future rate cuts will likely depend on data such as wage trends. Initially, the focus will be on the strength of the final manufacturing PMI figures.
In the United States, in addition to the final manufacturing PMI for May, the construction spending data for April and the ISM Manufacturing Index for May will also be released. The market anticipates the ISM Manufacturing Index to rise to 49.6 from the previous 49.2, although it is still expected to be below the critical 50-point threshold that separates economic expansion from contraction. A reading above 50 would be a surprise and could prompt a dollar-buying reaction.
There are few scheduled speeches or events. During European hours, Simkus, the Governor of the Bank of Lithuania, will give a lecture on financial stability. US financial officials have entered a “blackout period” since the end of last week, during which they refrain from commenting on monetary policy and economic outlooks.
This week, the ECB Governing Council meeting on Thursday and the US employment report on Friday are significant events. Therefore, the early part of the week may see tentative market movements.
Today, attention will be on the US ISM Manufacturing Index. We plan to follow the subsequent movements of the US dollar.
