This week, the dollar market has been turbulent. While rising US bond yields are exerting upward pressure on the dollar, the unstable stock market is creating disruptions, preventing a clear dollar trend. Additionally, as we approach the end of the month, there are indications that market flows are playing a significant role.
Today, the US PCE Deflator will be released in the New York market. Although this release follows the latest US CPI and PPI reports, its timing is somewhat delayed. If the actual figures significantly diverge from market expectations, it could have a substantial impact on the dollar market. Market expectations are for a year-over-year increase of +2.7% and a core year-over-year increase of +2.8%, both in line with previous levels.
Additionally, the Foreign Exchange Equilibrium Operation Implementation Status (April 26 – May 29) will be announced. This period coincides with the two suspected covert interventions. The market estimates yen-buying interventions totaling 9 trillion yen (5.5 trillion yen and 3.5 trillion yen), and the actual figures compared to these estimates could move the yen.
In terms of speeches and events, scheduled remarks include those from Croatian Central Bank Governor Vujcic, Italian Central Bank Governor Panetta, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic. This weekend marks the start of the “blackout period,” during which US financial officials refrain from public commentary.
Today, focus is on the US PCE Deflator. Depending on the figures, if there is a significant deviation from expectations, I plan to follow the ensuing movement in the US dollar.
