This week, rising bond yields across various countries have been notable. The slowdown in inflation appears to be stalling globally, leading to a decline in the likelihood of a rate cut by the end of the year in the US and other countries.
In the forex market, the recent upward trend in USD/JPY and cross-yen pairs has paused. While the broader trend of the US-Japan interest rate differential is exerting downward pressure on the yen, there is currently a tendency to buy back the yen in response to declining stock prices. It remains to be seen whether this is a short-term adjustment or the beginning of a new trend. The strength of US economic statistics and changes in market rate cut expectations will be key factors to watch.
Upcoming economic indicators in the overseas markets include:
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index (Final) (May)
- Eurozone Economic Sentiment (May)
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (April)
- South Africa Producer Price Index (April)
- South Africa Central Bank Policy Rate (May)
- Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)
- Canada Current Account (Q1 2024)
- Canada Real GDP (Revised) (Q1 2024)
- US Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) (April)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (May 19 – May 25)
- US Pending Home Sales (April)
In the US, the focus will be on the degree of revisions to the Real GDP figures and the strength of initial jobless claims.
Scheduled speeches include:
- New York Fed President Williams
- Dallas Fed President Logan
The US Weekly Petroleum Status Report will also be released. Corporate earnings reports from Dell and Costco are expected to draw attention.
Today, the Swiss franc has been significantly bought, driven by Swiss economic indicators. I plan to enter trades if opportunities arise.
