The dollar-yen pair has paused its upward movement as it approaches 156 yen. While there was a reaction of dollar selling after last week’s weaker-than-expected US employment statistics, dollar buying dominated towards the weekend. Since the beginning of this week, there has been a continuation of dollar buying momentum fueled by hawkish comments from US monetary officials. However, there have also been instances of sensitive reactions to dollar selling, notably seen in response to yesterday’s increase in US initial jobless claims.
For dollar-yen, the lack of confidence in the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate hike stance seems to be contributing to yen weakening pressure. However, the inflation situation is gradually setting the stage for interest rate hikes, and the decision of BOJ Governor Kuroda is eagerly awaited.
Last week, there were two instances of speculation about covert interventions. It played a significant role in the volatility, ranging from the 160 yen level to the 151 yen level. The current level around 156 yen is at the midpoint of that range. This week, amidst a lack of decisive factors, there’s uncertainty regarding the outlook for the dollar market, and confidence in the direction is wavering. Surprisingly, easily identifiable technical points like the midpoint are being noted.
Economic indicators to be announced in the international markets later include Canadian employment statistics for April and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary value) for May. For the dollar market, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is almost the sole economic statistic release. Market consensus expects a decline from 77.2 to 76.2 compared to the previous reading. Also, the expected inflation rate for 1 year is 3.2%, and for 5-10 years, it remains at 3.0%, the same as the previous forecast.
Regarding speaking events, there’s a diverse lineup including ECB Executive Board members Chiţu and Elderson, ECB Meeting Minutes (April 11), Bank of England Chief Economist Pill, BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Dingra, Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Governors Bowman and Goolsbee, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Chicago Fed President Evans, as well as Fed Vice Chair Quarles. Comments from Bank of England officials are anticipated after yesterday’s MPC meeting. Additionally, there may be discussions on today’s release of UK GDP exceeding expectations.
Trading this week is focused on selling the US dollar, but due to uncertainty surrounding USDJPY’s trend, further pursuit is avoided, with the current position being only a long position in GOLD. Attention is directed towards the movement of the US dollar after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
