As the week begins, the USD/JPY pair has rebounded to the vicinity of 154 yen. Last week, following two suspected covert interventions by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, the pair temporarily dropped to the late 151 yen range after disappointing U.S. employment data, but it recovered towards the close, ending the week around 153 yen.
Today, both the Tokyo market (due to the substitute holiday for Children’s Day) and the London market (Early May Bank Holiday) are closed, resulting in reduced liquidity similar to last Monday. Additionally, following the release of a series of European economic statistics, there are no major U.S. economic data releases scheduled, leading to a lack of new catalysts.
Market participants should be vigilant for any additional interventions in the USD/JPY, especially considering last week’s range from 160.17 to 151.86. The halfway point of this range is around 156.01, and the 38.2% retracement level is at 155.03. These are also psychological levels, and movements around 155 yen will likely attract attention. Furthermore, the moving averages are key reference points in times of scarce data, with the 21-day at approximately 154.49 and the 10-day at 155.35.
Regarding scheduled speeches, there are planned remarks from François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, Jens Weidmann, President of the Bundesbank, and Fabio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy, in London during the morning. Later in New York, speeches and event participations by Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, and John C. Williams, President of the New York Fed, are scheduled.
Given the lack of significant news, a ranging tendency is expected today. With a bearish view on the U.S. dollar, I plan to enter trades if opportunities arise.
