Forex Top Team

From April 1st to April 5th, my trading resulted in a total gain of +$60,899. Reading the Impact of ECB’s Next Move and US CPI Data on Financial Markets


From April 1st to April 5th, my trading resulted in a total gain of +$60,899.

At the beginning of the week, I planned to sell the EUR/USD on its rebound, but the currency pair fell immediately without rebounding. Unable to follow the initial drop, I switched to buying after it started to stabilize, catching the wave of selling USD, and managed to finish the week with a net gain.

Starting from the 8th, I’m anticipating a volatile week due to the upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI reports, in addition to interest rate decisions from the EU (ECB), Canada (BOC), and New Zealand (RBNZ).

I plan to trade both USD and EUR flexibly without predetermining to solely buy or sell.

Moving forward, I’m focusing on the following three points:

  1. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Amid Speculation on the Start of Interest Rate Cuts: The March U.S. CPI will be announced on the 10th. There are forecasts of U.S. interest rate cuts starting in June, but some believe these cuts may be pushed back. This index is drawing attention, especially this March’s CPI, as Richmond Fed President Barkin, who has voting rights at this year’s FOMC, stated the need for a broad slowdown in prices for rate cuts, indicating the importance of this CPI data within the FOMC, garnering even more focus than usual.
  2. ECB to Start Interest Rate Cuts in June, with Quarterly Reductions Thereafter: According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to start cutting interest rates in June and continue steadily until at least the end of next year. The next policy meeting, scheduled for the 11th, is anticipated to reduce the central bank deposit rate (currently at 4%) by 0.25 points, eventually reaching 2.25% by the end of 2025 with quarterly cuts of 0.25 points. ECB officials seem to agree on June as the start of easing, with the pace depending on economic conditions, as stated by President Lagarde. (Source: Bloomberg)
  3. Bitcoin’s Price Could Reach About $303,600 by 2028?: The Bitcoin halving is approaching within three weeks in 2024. If historical patterns repeat, the current price of $66,000 could reach $434,280 per BTC by the 2028 halving. However, the post-halving gains have been decreasing over the years. Therefore, if the trend of a 45% decrease continues, Bitcoin could see a 360% increase by the next cycle, reaching about $303,600 by the 2028 halving. (Source: Cointelegraph)

P.S. With the increasing frequency of earthquakes since the Noto Peninsula earthquake on January 1st, it’s wise to be prepared. Having had a close call with death due to an earthquake, I understand the risks all too well. Recent earthquakes include:

  • Worldwide: Near Sarpatta, India (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 5.8; near Adak, Alaska (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 3.2; in the Mogue Islands area, Northern Mariana Islands (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 6.8; near Belden, California (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 3.0; east of Hualien City, Taiwan (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 4.3; near El Palmarsito, Mexico (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 5.0; near Ramhormoz, Iran (April 5, 2024): Magnitude 4.4.
  • Japan: West of Ishigaki Island (April 5, 2024): Multiple quakes ranging from magnitudes of 4.1 to 5.1.

Taiwan and the regions around Japan, especially near Ishigaki Island, have reported several earthquakes. Earthquakes can occur in clusters, especially near plate boundaries, leading to aftershocks. It’s a reminder of the increased risk of significant earthquakes, underscoring the importance of revisiting earthquake preparedness.

Have a great weekend!